Justin Steele

The phrase "there is always next year" historically has been a very important part of the Cubs fans lexicon. When the Cubs finally won in 2016, Cubs fans assumed that "waiting till next year" was a thing of the past and the Cubs would perennial winners. As with most things Cubs related, that proved wrong. The Cubs sold off prospects to extend the competitive window. The farm system was not deep enough to allow for such losses.

At the end of the 2020 season when Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations. The Cubs were coming off a playoff year during the Covid shortened year. Hoyer was left with two options keep putting bandaids on the team or begin a transitionary period where the Cubs would have to do rebuild. Jed picked the latter option because they would result in longer term success. While this option is painful and hard for a large market team to do, it was absolutely the right call. In 2021, Hoyer let Kyle Schwarber walk before the season. During the season, the Cubs traded Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez for prospects. The rebuild began.

For those who remember how long it took Theo Epstein to turn the Cubs into winner, remember how tough the first three years of his tenure were. Luckily for the Cubs, they did not have to do a complete tear down and rebuild. The Cubs had key World Series contributors Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras. They also had young 2nd baseman/shortstop Nico Hoerner. The Cubs showed a willingness to add players such as Marcus Stroman and Japanese star Seiya Suzuki. While the 2022 season was rough early on, the Cubs showed the ability to be competitive at the end.

2023 brought both hope and confusion. There was hope because of the additions of Dansby Swanson and Jameson Taillon were a real moves that reminded Cubs fans of the 2015 season when the Cubs added Jon Lester. The addition of Cody Bellinger was an interest restoration project. Maybe, he could be like Jim Edmonds from 2008. The confusion came with the additions of Mancini and Hosmer to the lineup. The Cubs did not improve the bullpen. Were the Cubs going to be competitive or were they building for future years? Most fans could see that this team was adding pieces which would help the team in future years. The current team construction would likely lead to a slightly competitive team in a weak division. This is what fans saw in April until a collapse carried well through May. Cody Bellinger went down. Everyone knows what happened when Cody returned from injury, and everyone knows about the current collapse.

Record wise, it seems that the Cubs are where are lot of people expected them to finish. It isn't the where that is worth discussing. The question is how. The how will lead us to what Jed and company may look do to in the off season.

The 2023 Chicago Cubs were expected to be competitive based on fielding and starting pitching. The fielding was excellent. The starting pitching while very good outside of Jameson Taillon at the beginning of the season tailed off. Marcus Stroman who was considered the National League Cy Young. Stroman collapsed around All-Star Break. Drew Smyly collapsed as well. The only starter who started the season and continued to perform was Justin Steele. Kyle Hendricks came back from surgery in May and pitched at a decent level. The Cubs had to rely on two rookie pitchers Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad.

Starters at the beginning of the season:

Marcus Stroman

Justin Steele

Drew Smyly

Jameson Taillon

Hayden Wesneski

Starters in September:

Justin Steele

Kyle Hendricks

Jameson Taillon

Jordan Wicks

Javier Assad

While it was expected that Kyle Hendricks would return to the rotation, the prediction was that he would step into the number 5 starter role. Given the injuries and failings of Smyly, Taillon, Wesneski, and Stroman, the Cubs really needed him to perform. He did very well and he has likely earned his club option.

For 2024, this is how the pitching staff looks:

Projected Starters:

Justin Steele

Jameson Taillon

Marcus Stroman - player option

Kyle Hendricks - club option

Jordan Wicks

Javier Assad

Relievers:

Adbert Azolay - Arbitration Year 1

Julian Merriweather - Arbitration Year 1

Mark Leiter - Arbitration Year 1

Luke Little - Pre Arbitration

Daniel Palencia - Pre Arbitration

Jose Cuas - Pre Arbitration

Keegan Thompson - Pre Arbitration

Hayden Wesneski - Pre Arbitration

Caleb Killian - Pre Arbitration

Drew Smyly

I think it safe to say that Drew Smyly's time as a full time starter is over. He was solid for half a season, but he clearly does not have gas tank to be a full time starter. He will be a bullpen arm with the ability to give some spot starts. At 10 million a year, it does seem like he is pretty expensive for a bullpen arm who does not close. The question will be whether Javier Assad or Jordan Wicks will be the number 5 starter next season. Wicks has thrown 124 innings in 2023. Javier Assad pitched more MLB innings while totaling 121 innings. Both will need to have their innings pushed well beyond those numbers in 2024.

This starting rotation will be fine and adequate if the rest of the NL Central decides to stay pat without making any changes. The Cardinals will likely acquire starters. They are likely front runners for Aaron Nola. The Reds will likely improve their rotation as well. For the Cubs to succeed with their current rotation, a lot of "ifs" need to happen. If Justin Steele repeats his 2023 or even better, he takes the next step, if Marcus Stroman shows that he is more like the Stroman of the first half of 2023, if Jameson Taillon shows that he can settle down return to his Yankee days, if Kyle Hendricks can continue the work he did and be a very solid number 4 or 5 starter, the Cubs rotation will be a decent staff next year. As a total staff the Cubs were 14th in ERA and 13th in xFIP. The Cubs starters were 17th overall in ERA and 13th in xFIP. This includes the great start that Marcus Stroman had and the season Steele had. This also includes the the bullpen who made a nice run from the beginning of June through the end of August where it had the 5th best ERA in the majors and 15th in xFIP. There were injuries such as the ones which Stroman experienced. However, given all of the ifs the Cubs could look at bolstering that rotation. Considering that the Cubs have Taillon locked for more years and Stroman most likely for one more season, the Cubs may part with Hendricks to have a shot at a Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, or potentially Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Jed Hoyer was in Japan to watch Yamamoto. He is not the only Japanese pitcher the Cubs have seen. The Cubs could very well move on from Kyle Hendricks and pursue some better options.

The bullpen did better than expected. It was assumed it was going to be a weakness for the Cubs. Michael Fulmer came to Chicago with the expectation that he would be the closer. He failed in that role. He ended up settling into a set up man role along with Mark Leiter Jr. Adbert Azolay found his home as the Cubs closer in June. Rounding out the high leverage bullpen arms was Julian Merryweather. These four relievers were crucial to the Cubs success while their starting rotation faltered. David Ross leaned heavily and based on use they faltered as well. Reliever useage is more important in today's game because fewer pitchers give quality starts. For an example, the team leaders in quality starts in Toronto and Chicago both lead the majors in 2016 with 100 quality starts. This year's leaders are in the 70s. The Cubs are currently ranked 4th in quality starts with 71. This means the Cubs had 89 games where the pitcher could not get passed the 6th inning. The Cubs will have to be able to rely on more bullpen arms. Closers like Josh Hader will likely be out of Hoyer's the price range. The Cubs may look at Brent Suter while also looking internally and the discount bin for some options.

The Cubs will have to improve pitching for them to improve on 2023. If Jed thinks the team should be competitive, he will do what was done before 2015 and sign a good starter to complement the rotation. Unfortunately, that may be letting Hendricks walk. If the Cubs are still building to become a real competitor, the Cubs may pick up Hendrick's option and hope the young arms develop further and wait until 2025 to sign another starter. Too bad the 2025 starting pitcher free agent class is very shallow. The bullpen situation is a tougher one. It is not an exact science. The Cubs have been burned by paying for closers and trading for quality relievers for them to not pan out. Below is what Cubs fans may see next year:

Potential Starters:

Justin Steele

Blake Snell/Aaron Nola/Eduardo Rogriguez/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Shota Imanga

Jameson Taillon

Marcus Stroman - player option

Jordan Wicks

Javier Assad

Relievers:

Brent Suter

Adbert Azolay - Arbitration Year 1

Julian Merriweather - Arbitration Year 1

Mark Leiter - Arbitration Year 1

Luke Little - Pre Arbitration

Daniel Palencia - Pre Arbitration

Jose Cuas - Pre Arbitration

Keegan Thompson - Pre Arbitration

Hayden Wesneski - Pre Arbitration

Caleb Killian - Pre Arbitration

Drew Smyly