On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Padres series preview

The Padres were a very good team in 2021, winning 89 games and a wild card series over the Mets.

However, they finished 22 games behind the Dodgers and set about trying to close that gap. They signed Xander Bogaerts even though they already had a plethora of shortstops, figuring they could move the other guys elsewhere. They signed Nelson Cruz to DH even though they could probably have used one of the shortstops there. Fernando Tatis Jr., injured and suspended last year, has recently returned.

The results have been mixed. San Diego stands at .500 entering this series, though they are coming off winning three of four from the Diamondbacks in Arizona. That’s another note: The Padres have been better on the road this year (7-4) than at home (5-8), small sample size caveats, of course.

The last time the Padres were in Wrigley Field was mid-June, 2022. They swept that four-game series and outscored the Cubs 41-15. That was a far different Cubs team, though: Three of the four starters were Kyle Hendricks (likely injured), Caleb Kilian (second MLB start) and Matt Swarmer (fourth MLB start).

This Cubs rotation and lineup is better.

Fun fact

The Cubs have a .581 winning percentage at home against the Padres. That is their second highest against any National League team. They are .600 against the Braves. The Cubs have played 1,155 games at home against the Braves and 253 against the Padres.

The Cubs are 455-402 in all night games at home, a .531 percentage. They are 25-20, .556, against the Padres. Their percentage is .549 in all day games (5,218-4,274-49). Against the Padres, it is .587 (122-86). (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Justin Steele, LHP (3-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.880 WHIP, 3.53 FIP) vs. Blake Snell, LHP (0-3, 6.00 ERA, 1.889 WHIP, 6.05 FIP)

Wednesday: Drew Smyly, LHP (2-1, 3.13 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, 3.37 FIP) vs. Michael Wacha, RHP (2-1, 7.08 ERA, 1.721 WHIP, 4.36 FIP)

Thursday: Hayden Wesneski, RHP (1-1, 6.23 ERA, 1.673 WHIP, 6.15 FIP) vs. Seth Lugo, RHP (2-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, 2.80 FIP)

With the off day this week, the Cubs are simply skipping what would have been Jameson Taillon’s turn in the rotation. The next time they’ll need someone for the fifth starter spot will be Saturday against the Marlins in Miami (Marcus Stroman should go on normal rest Friday).

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside Cubs and Padres market territories)

Wednesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside Cubs and Padres market territories)

Thursday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Cubs miss the Padres’ two best pitchers, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Two of these three pitching matchups appear favorable to the Cubs, so I’ll say they’ll take two of three and end the homestand on a high note.

Up next

The Cubs travel to Miami to play a three-game series against the Marlins which begins Friday evening.