A look at the NL Central a quarter of the way through the season

The Brewers are currently atop the division

By Sara Sanchez@BCB_Sara May 19, 2023, 1:00pm CDT

William Contreras and Joey Wiemer celebrate a home run against the Cardinals

If I was trying to come up with a hashtag for the NL Central so far this season I might go with “expect the unexpected.” The St. Louis Cardinals were supposed to be in first place and they are currently in last place (although threatening to climb out of the cellar). The PIttsburgh Pirates were supposed to be bottom dwellers and currently sit in second place, with a 23-20 record. The Chicago Cubs are... well, where most projection systems believed they would be in third place, although I doubt those projection systems saw them in tie with the Cincinnati Reds.

We’ve had 45 (ish) games of baseball in the heartland, so let’s take a look at what we’ve learned so far about the Cubs and their division.

Brewers

The pitching is still a strength although not nearly as much of one as it has been in the past. Corbin Burnes is no longer the indisputable best pitcher in the National League, he’s also no longer the indisputable best pitcher on the Brewers with Freddy Peralta putting up slightly more WAR so far this season according to FanGraphs. You can see the Brewers pitching leaders below:

A few other things jump out on this table. First, Brandon Woodruff has been on the IL since mid-April with a Grade 2 sub-scapular strain. Former Cub Wade Miley will join him there this week after leaving his start against the Cardinals with a strained lat. The injury woes have actually left Brewers starting pitching squarely in the middle of the pack in the NL Central, behind the Cubs and the Pirates:

NL Central Starting Pitching by WAR as of 5/19

Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
CHC	14	11	43	225.2	8.02	2.55	1.04	.283	72.1%	42.5%	11.1%	3.91	4.00	4.16	3.8
PIT	18	16	43	234.1	8.37	3.34	0.92	.301	72.3%	40.5%	9.1%	3.76	3.93	4.40	3.6
MIL	15	16	43	228.2	7.83	3.19	1.30	.277	73.3%	40.3%	12.5%	4.09	4.60	4.57	2.1
CIN	6	14	43	201.1	8.90	3.58	1.61	.364	69.2%	42.0%	16.1%	6.21	5.03	4.49	1.8
STL	10	17	45	236.0	7.89	3.43	1.33	.334	72.6%	44.9%	15.1%	5.00	4.78	4.43	1.5

Select team stats for starting pitching FanGraphs

In fact, as I dug a bit deeper, I’m not sure how much of a strength their pitching really even was relative to the rest of the division. As you can see above. You may think, well the Brewers advantages must live in their bullpen and, well let’s take a look at that:

NL Central Releiver WAR as of 5/19

Team	SV	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Team	SV	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
CIN	13	173.0	9.52	3.95	0.83	.296	73.6%	43.3%	9.4%	3.75	3.86	4.24	2.2
PIT	13	144.1	9.42	3.93	0.87	.290	77.5%	44.6%	10.6%	3.49	3.86	4.06	1.4
STL	8	160.2	10.20	4.09	0.90	.304	73.3%	44.6%	11.3%	3.64	3.73	3.84	1.3
CHC	5	155.1	9.39	3.59	0.93	.297	68.5%	43.6%	10.7%	4.46	3.86	4.06	1.1
MIL	10	150.1	8.32	3.59	1.44	.269	79.8%	41.5%	15.0%	3.95	4.90	4.53	-0.1

Select bullpen stats FanGraphs

A few things jumped out at me here. The first is that the Brewers bullpen, while leading in some crucial things (left on base percentage jumped out at me) has actually been the worst bullpen in the division. Now, combined reliever stats are often misleading. The best teams have a highly functional A-bullpen for games they are winning to lock down, and a B-bullpen for games they are losing that will draw down those averages.

You might be presuming that the Brewers offense has been their strong suit this season and they are winning games of the torrid pace of their hitting. Let’s take a look at their top hitters so far in 2023:

Christian Yelich and William Contreras are having solid years, and the Brewers are currently getting a lot out of Owen Miller’s limited appearances so far. However, beyond that, there really isn’t that much I’d consider dominant here. So what gives? After all, the Brewers are winning the division and it’s not on the strength of dominant starting pitching or a dominant bullpen, so it must be the bats, right? Well:

NL Central Hitting Leaders by WAR 5/19

Team	TG	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
Team	TG	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
STL	45	1748	65	229	221	34	9.2%	20.9%	.181	.306	.264	.336	.445	.339	116	-4.0	29.7	-4.7	8.5
CHC	43	1676	54	206	199	37	9.5%	23.0%	.165	.322	.266	.340	.431	.336	111	1.4	23.9	-0.1	8.1
MIL	43	1587	51	183	175	34	9.5%	25.0%	.149	.294	.239	.316	.388	.310	93	-1.8	-16.2	15.7	5.4
PIT	43	1617	41	184	175	50	9.8%	22.8%	.157	.294	.242	.322	.399	.316	97	0.6	-6.0	-6.0	4.3
CIN	43	1612	34	188	180	31	9.1%	24.3%	.131	.316	.248	.325	.379	.312	87	2.3	-23.4	-13.8	1.8

Select offensive stats by team FanGraphs

What’s wild is that the Brewers aren’t dominant here either. Consider that a ray of hope for the rest of the division. The Brewers are winning games at the margins, not on any dominant set of talent or skills to date. That provides an opening for some of the teams getting more from their players to take over the division.

Pirates

No one saw this coming, especially after the Buccos lost Oneil Cruz to a broken ankle in early April. And yet, here we are. The Pirates are 23-20 and just one game back of the Brewers for the division lead. From the charts above it’s pretty clear that the Pirates are getting a lot more from their pitching, both starters and relievers, relative to the rest of the divisions. Their leaderboard:

Pirates starting pitching has overperformed expectations considerably. Mitch Keller and Vince Velasquez have overperformed expectations. David Bednar has been worth 1 WAR across 16 innings and has saved nine games while only blowing one save (God, what must it be like to have a closer?).

The place the Pirates have struggled is their offense. They are fourth in the division in offense this season. You can see their individual offensive contributions below:

Cubs

Honestly, the tied for third place 19-24 Chicago Cubs might be the most frustrating team in the division. I wrote up their sub-.500 season last week, so won’t go quite as in depth here. I’m not just saying they are frustrating because the current road trip has been terrible or the most recent loss to the Astros blowing a five-run lead was disastrous (although both of those things are true).

The Cubs have gotten the best starting pitching in the division and are in shouting distance of the best offensive production in the division. They do not have a reliable bullpen, so instead of the 24-19 record (same as the Brewers) their Pythag indicates they should have, they are 19-24 and five games behind the Brewers. You can look at the breakdown of their best pitching performances below:

On the hitting side, the Cubs have really exceeded expectations, although a few of those overperformers have hit the injured list which has hurt the Cubs overall performance. That said, the Cubs should be a reliable source of offense if these hitters continue to produce:

Look, the Cubs have all the talent in the world but they have to be able to get outs at the end of a baseball game. To do that they will need more pitchers in the bullpen to step up outside of Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr.

Reds

It is intriguing that the Reds and Cubs have the same record when you look at their team performances and individual performances next to each other. Honestly, intriguing is the wrong word. It’s great if you’re a Reds fan and sort of awful if you cheer for the Cubs. The Reds have the second to worst starting pitching in the division, the best relief pitching and the worst offensive production by WAR in the division.

You can see the gap between starting and relief pitching in Cincinatti in these pitching performance tables:

Alexis Díaz, the Reds closer, has been the most valuable pitcher for the Reds in just 16 innings. They do not have a single starting pitcher who has put one win above replacement so far this season.

Offensively, they have also struggled:

T.J. Friedl has been the best hitter on the Reds so far this season. He also hit the injured list with an oblique strain on Monday. Jonathan India is also putting together a pretty solid season so far, but it is honestly a bit mystifying (infuriating) as to how the Reds have two players with more than one win above replacement while the Cubs have five players who have exceeded all of the Reds players and these two teams are tied in the division.

Cardinals

It was a lot of fun to see the Cardinals at the bottom of the flags atop the Wrigley Field marquee through the early part of the season, but if current trends hold they won’t be there for very long. The Cardinals have been surging since they beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 8. They are 8-2 since then and if you were watching them throttle the Dodgers 16-8 last night on MLB Network, they certainly did not look like a last place team. The problem for the Cardinals has been starting pitching:

The pitching woes may have been related to the Cardinals transitioning from Yadier Molina’s game planning and calling expertise to a new catcher in Willson Contreras this season, however they seem to be righting the ship a bit after Contreras’ brief demotion to DH.

The offensive prowess of this team has never been in doubt and they lead the division in offensive output so far:

Takeaways

The Brewers are leading the division right now, but they are not getting dominant performances from starting pitchers, relievers or their hitters. It creates an opportunity for other teams to challenge for the division. The Pirates and Reds have both probably gotten a bit lucky so far and may fall off a bit, but the Cubs and Cardinals have gotten equally unlucky and have the ability to surge. Either way, there are only six games that seperate the top and bottom of the division as of today, so it could be a photo finish in the Central.

A look at the NL Central a quarter of the way through the season

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