The Cubs have completed the first 50 games of their schedule.

Keeping firmly in mind that past performance is not indicative of future results, what does the historical record say about how they might fare in their remaining games?

Excluding the 60-game season of 2020, the Cubs have had:

--A higher winning percentage after 50 games than they had at 50 games in 59 seasons

--A lower percentage in 62 seasons

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IMPROVEMENTS

Their biggest improvement was by 213 percentage points, from .260 to .473, in 1981, when they started 12-36-2, then went 26-29-1 before the season was halted by a strike.

Among full seasons, they improved most in 1953, by 196 points, from .290 (14-35-1) to .486 (51-54).

The Cubs were at least 150 points better after 50 games in 3 more seasons:

183 points: 1943, from .360 to .543

172 points: 1944, from .370 to .542

162 points: 1935, from .540 to .702

They improved by at least 100 points in 5 seasons, including by 123 in 2007 (from .440 to .563) and by 102 in 2014 (from .380 to .482).

They fell just short of triple digits in 2017, when they improved by 98, from .500 to .598.

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The Cubs' average gain in the seasons in which they improved was 63 points.

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DECLINES

Their biggest fall-off was in 1999: a staggering 241 points, from .580 (29-21) to .339 (38-74).

They tumbled by 205 points in 1985 (from .620 to .415) and by 202 in 1977 (from .640 to .438).

In 17 more seasons, they were at least 100 points worse after 50 games, including 176 in 2021 (from .560 to .384) and 118 in 2019 (from .600 to .482).

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In the seasons in which they fared worse, the Cubs' average decline was 78 points.

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AFTER SUB-.500 STARTS

The Cubs were below .500 after 50 games, as they are this year, in 47 previous seasons.

They had a winning percentage above .500 during their remaining games in only 7 of those seasons:

.563: 2007 (from .440)

.552: 1922 (from .450)

.543: 1943 (from .360)

.542: 1944 (from .370)

.536: 1971 (from .460)

.519: 1914 (from .480)

.509: 1979 (from .460)

In 1992, the Cubs were .500 the rest of the year, from .440 in their first 50 games.

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The Cubs had a higher winning percentage, but less than .500, in 25 seasons, for a total of 33 in which they were under .500 through 50 games, then fared better to the end of the schedule.

In 14 seasons, they were under .500 through 50 games, then had even less success thereafter.

The 3 biggest declines among those 13 were by 94 points in 1980 (from .460 to .366), 72 points in 1960 (from .440 to .368) and 54 points in 1951 (from .440 to .386).

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In all 47 seasons when they were below .500 through 50 games, the Cubs averaged an improvement of 34 points the rest of the season.

Their average gain in the 33 seasons in which they improved was 68 points.

Their average decline in the 14 seasons in which they fared worse was 32 points.

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LAST 10 SUB-.500 STARTS

Here, in chronological order, are the last 10 seasons in which the Cubs were below .500 after 50 games, and how they fared the rest of the season:

2000: .380 (19-31), then .411 (46-66), + 31 points

2002: .400 (20-30), then .420 (47-65), + 20 points

2006: .380 (19-31), then .420 (47-65), + 40 points

2007: .440 (22-38), then .563 (63-49), + 123 points

2010: .480 (24-26), then .455 (51-61), - 25 points

2011: .440 (22-28), then .438 (49-63), - 2 points

2012: .360 (18-32), then .384 (43-69), + 24 points

2013: .400 (20-30), then .411 (46-66), + 11 points

2014: .380 (19-31), then .482 (54-58), + 102 points

2022: .420 (21-29), then .473 (53-59), + 53 points

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In those seasons, the Cubs were a combined .408 through their 50th games (204-296) and .446 (499-621) thereafter, an improvement of 38 points.