A look at remaining schedules for the Cubs, Brewers and Reds

A week and a half ago, I posted a first look at the games remaining for the Cubs, Brewers and Reds.

Since that article posted August 15, all three teams have matching 5-3 records, so the teams have basically treaded water for a week and a half while eight games have been crossed off the schedule.

Here are the remaining schedules for the three N.L. Central contenders. The Cubs begin action Thursday inhabiting the second wild-card spot in the National League, one percentage point ahead of the Reds and 2½ games behind the Phillies for the top wild-card spot. There are several other wild-card contenders just behind those two: the Diamondbacks, Giants and Marlins. For now, let’s focus solely on the division race.

Cubs: 36 games (16 home, 20 road)

Home: Brewers (3), Giants (3), Diamondbacks (4), Pirates (3), Rockies (3)
Road: at Pirates (4), at Reds (4), at Rockies (3), at Diamondbacks (3), at Braves (3), at Brewers (3)

The Cubs have a winning record on the road entering the weekend series at Pittsburgh, 31-30. More importantly, they’re 14-7 on the road since the beginning of July. They’ll have tough road series at Cincinnati, at Atlanta and at Milwaukee for sure. The series at Arizona — well, there are always tons of Cubs fans who show up at Chase Field. That couldn’t hurt.

Having 13 games remaining against the Pirates and Rockies can’t hurt.

And remember, the last time the Cubs and Reds met, the Cubs won three of four and outscored them 46-24.

Brewers: 35 games (19 home, 16 road)

Home: Padres (3), Phillies (3), Marlins (4), Nationals (3), Cardinals (3), Cubs (3)
Road: at Cubs (3), at Pirates (3), at Yankees (3), at Cardinals (4), at Marlins (3)

The Brewers have plenty of games against contending teams, both for the division and the wild card, as they’ll face the Marlins and Phillies for a total of 10 games as well as the six remaining with the Cubs. But they’ve also got seven against a sad-sack Cardinals squad and three vs. the free-falling Yankees. Notably, the Brewers and Reds don’t play each other again.

Reds: 34 games (16 home, 18 road)

Home: Cubs (4), Mariners (3), Cardinals (3), Twins (3), Pirates (3)
Road: at Diamondbacks (4), at Giants (3), at Tigers (3), at Mets (3), at Guardians (2), at Cardinals (3)

Of the Reds’ remaining 34 games, 11 are against American League teams, so Cubs fans can root for those teams unabashedly to win over the Reds, since those wins wouldn’t affect any N.L. race.

Of course, it would have helped if the Rangers, Twins and Angels could have done ANYTHING against the Brewers and Reds over the last week.

The Reds are currently in the middle of a 10-game West Coast trip and began it well by sweeping the Angels. The D-Backs and Giants, in competition with the Reds for wild-card positioning, could be tougher opponents than the Reds found in Anaheim. Also, the Reds are the only team among the three N.L. Central contenders with a losing record at home. They’ll return to GABP September 1 for that big four-game set with the Cubs with a 31-34 record at home, and having lost eight of their last 11 home games.

Thoughts on all this

The Cubs are 66-60 entering play tonight in Pittsburgh. That’s a .520 winning percentage. If they play to that percentage for the rest of the way, they’d go 19-17, which would leave them with 85 wins. That might or might not be enough for a wild card.

But to me, the key isn’t the .520 season-long winning percentage. It’s the fact that since they were swept in Anaheim in early June, they’re 40-24. That’s a .625 winning percentage and if they can keep that up for the remaining 36 games, that’s 23-13, or 89 wins for the season. That should be enough for a wild card and MIGHT be enough to win the division, if they can go at least 4-2 against the Brewers, and get a bit of help.

Split the difference and we’d have an 87-win Cubs team, also likely enough for one of the wild card spots.

Thus, barring a complete collapse — let’s hope not, but this team appears to be playing well enough that such a thing seems unlikely — the Cubs appear headed to their first postseason berth in a full season since 2018.

I’m ready. You?