On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Mets series preview

The Mets have been in free-fall recently, having not won a single game since the trade deadline, and swept out of series by the Royals and Orioles.

Looks like a really good time for the Cubs to visit Citi Field.

For more on the Mets, here’s Chris McShane, manager of our SB Nation Mets site Amazin’ Avenue.

As disappointing as the Mets were the last time they faced the Cubs, they finished that three-game series in late May with a record above .500. It’s almost unfathomable that things have changed so drastically between then and now, but they surely have. Following an abysmal stretch of baseball for the two months that followed that series, the Mets sold at the deadline in a way that few teams, if any, ever had before.

Since the deadline, the Mets are 0-6. Aside from a couple of starters who are still appearing regularly, their lineups have looked more like the ones you’d see in spring training than anything else. And their rotation features pitchers who struggled mightily earlier this season as the fill-ins for the departed Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. In this series, the Cubs will see Kodai Senga, who has easily been the Mets’ best pitcher this year and currently ranks 12th in baseball among 66 qualified starting pitchers in ERA. After that, though, they’ll see Carlos Carrasco, who has been an inspiring story as a person but seems to be toast, and David Peterson, who has pitched a bit better recently but pitched so poorly early in the season that the Mets’ record in games he started was very, very bad.

Considering the way the Cubs have played lately, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if they were to sweep the Mets. While the team’s actions at the deadline were necessary and the returns they brought back should be praised, it feels like the Mets could go the rest of this season without winning another game.

Fun fact

The Cubs and Mets have played 764 games since the rivalry began in 1962.

The Cubs have outscored the Mets by a grand total of 14 runs, 3,302 to 3,288.

The outcome of the games has not been as close.

The Cubs’ .516 overall winning percentage against the Mets (393-369), and their .487 on the road (182-192), both are their second highest vs. any NL team since 1962. The Cubs are .547 overall and .512 on the road against the Padres.

When the Cubs hosted the Mets in May, they won two of three.

But in previous recent seasons, many series between the teams at New York have turned out unexpectedly well for the Cubs:

2022: swept 3 games
2019: swept 3
2018: swept 4
2015: swept 3
2013: won 2 of 3
2012: won 2 of 3
2011: won 2 of 3

That’s a combined 19-3!

In the 4 other series at New York since 2011, the Cubs were 4-11, for a grand total of 23-14, a .622 percentage. At home since 2011, the Cubs are 27-12, .672.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Monday: Drew Smyly, LHP (8-7, 4.71 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 4.94 FIP) vs. Kodai Senga, RHP (7-6, 3.25 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 3.70 FIP)

Tuesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (6-6, 5.36 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 4.65 FIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (3-6, 6.60 ERA, 1.638 WHIP, 5.99 FIP)

Wednesday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (4-6, 4.09 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, 4.17 FIP) vs. David Peterson, LHP (3-7, 5.65 ERA, 1.607 WHIP, 4.37 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Monday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Mets market territories)

Tuesday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Wednesday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Mets market territories)

Prediction

As noted above, the Mets have just been swept on an entire six-game road trip by the Royals (three) and Orioles (three).

I really hesitate to predict Cubs sweeps and the Mets are much better at home than on the road. That, and the pitching matchups, suggest the Cubs will take two of three.

Up next

The Cubs have Thursday off, then begin a three-game series in Toronto against the Blue Jays Friday evening.