Starting tonight, the Cubs have 12 games in which to keep an unexpectedly successful season going or see it come to an end.
"What's past is prologue," William Shakespeare declared in "The Tempest."
But Shakespeare never saw professional team sports.
What a team did last year or a century ago really has no bearing on what it will do in a current season.
Still, I was curious how the Cubs have fared in previous seasons in which they were in contention with a dozen games left.
I defined "contention" as ahead or behind in a race for a league/division title or Wild Card berth by no more than 5 games with 12 to play.
That excluded 7 seasons in which they had big leads: 1906-07, 1910, 1918, 1932, 1984 and 2016.
22 other seasons met the criteria, from 1908 through 2020.
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WHERE THEY STOOD
Going into the last 12 games in 6 of those seasons, the Cubs were in first place, by 1 (1935) to 5 games (1989).
2018 was the only year of the 6 in which they did not finish first, falling into a tie atop the division with the Brewers and losing a showdown for the title at Wrigley Field.
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In 1908, the Cubs were tied for first with a dozen games remaining. The first of their final 12 games the "Merkle's Boner" tie at the Polo Grounds in New York. They won the pennant by winning the replay of that game in their last game, the day after the season was to have ended.
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In 1938, 2003 and 2007, the Cubs trailed in the standings with 12 games to go, by 3.5, 1.5 and 1 game, respectively.
They finished first by 2, 1 and 2 games.
The Cubs failed to make up deficits of 1.5 games in 1930, 1937 and 1970; of 2 games in 2019; of 3.5 games in 1928; of 4 games in 1969; and of 5 games in 1936 and 1973.
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In 1998 and 2015, they hung on down the stretch to earn Wild Card berths, doing so by winning a Game 163 in the earlier year.
In 2001 and 2004, they faltered in bids for play in the Wild Card Game.
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WHAT THEIR RECORD WAS
In all 22 seasons combined, the Cubs had a .567 winning percentage with 12 games left.
Their average record was 81-62 and on average they were 2 games out of first place.
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In the 8 seasons before expansion, of 154 or fewer games, the Cubs had a .597 percentage with 12 games to go, with a record of 85-57, and were 1 game out of first.
In the 14 seasons of the Expansion Era, they played 162 games in all but 2020, when they played just 60.
They were .550 in those seasons, their average record was 78-64 and they were 3 games out of first.
Excluding 2020, their percentage was .549, their average record was 82-68 and they still were 3 games out of first.
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MORE OFTEN, FINISHED STRONGLY
The Cubs went 10-2 to finish the season in 1908 and 1935.
They were 9-2-1 in 1938, 9-3 in 1930 and 2015, and 8-4 in 6 seasons, most recently 2017.
2018 was the fifth seasons in which they went 7-5.
They were 6-6 in 2020 and 5-7 in 4 seasons, all between 1969 and 2004.
The Cubs' worst finish even when in contention was 2-10 in 2019.
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COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS GAMES
In all 22 seasons, they were 158-105-1, .600, which is 34 points higher than their percentage going into their final 12 games. They finished an average of 2 games out of first, the same as they had going into the last 12 games.
Before expansion, they were 69-26-1, .724, an improvement of a whopping 129 points over their .597 with 12 games to go, but remained, on average, 1 game out of first.
Since expansion, they are 89-79, .530, a decline of 20 points from their .550 in their earlier games. They stayed 3 games out of first.
Excluding 2020, they are 83-73, .532, a drop of 17 points from .549, and wound up an average of 4 games out of first, 1 more than before Game No. 151.
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The Cubs' winning percentage in their last dozen games was higher than in the previous games in 15 seasons and lower in 7.
It was higher by at least 100 points in 8 seasons, topped by 251 in 1938 (.818 from.567), 206 in 1908 (.833 from .627) and 199 in 1935 (.833 from .634).
It was 180 points in 1930, 163 in 2015, 134 in 2003, 107 in 2017 and exactly 100 in 1989.
The smallest gain was 20 points, in 1936 (.583 from .563).
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The smallest decline was a mere 4 points, in 2018 (.583 from .587).
The next-smallest was 83, in 2020 (.500 from .583).
They were worse by 110 points in 1970 (.417 from .527), 143 in both 1998 and 2004 (.417 from .560), and by 163 in 1969 (.417 from .580).
Their 2-10 tailspin was a drop of 380 points (.167 from .547).
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AVERAGE RECORD TO END YEAR
In all 22 seasons, the Cubs' average record in their final 12 games was 7-5.
It was 8-3 in the 8 seasons before expansion and 6-6 in the 14 after expansion, both including and excluding 2020.
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