2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 76

Well, I’ve been waiting all season for Shōta Imanaga to see a team for a second time. Given the odd pitch mix for a left handed pitcher, I’ve wondered if some of the magic was going to go away as hitters see him more. Of course, with modern technology, there are a lot of ways through various simulators to replicate some of the experience against a certain pitcher. But I’m not sure that can ever fully duplicate the live experience.

This first time Imanaga sees a team for the second time was definitely a disaster. Can we know if it is familiarity? I’m reluctant to reach for that as the first explanation. That meeting was some time ago. This is still not that first time when he sees a team in consecutive starts that inevitably happens a few times during the season. I’ve never kept any numbers on such starts. For a while, I wondered why they don’t. Then I more or less got past that idea. Over time, if you check in on such spots it feels almost as likely that the offense gets the jump on the pitcher in the second start as vice versa. I do think in one of situations some pitchers struggle with those, but others definitely don’t at all. As with clutch stats, I suspect that the widest swath of players basically revert to their numbers in these situations over time.

So if it wasn’t familiarity, we’re left with a few other possibilities. The first, perhaps easiest, explanation? The Mets are scorching hot. Some percentage of the answer to the question falls into this column. I didn’t bookmark the tweet I saw yesterday, but over whatever period of time was being looked at, the Mets had the highest wRC+ in baseball. Given what the Orioles seem to be doing a few times a week, if that period of time is more than a few days, it is pretty impressive. A team that gets on a roll and starts playing with supreme confidence is a formidable opponent.

The explanations get more gruesome after just tipping the cap to an opponent that was and is locked in right now. The Statcast metrics suggested that Imanaga’s fastball was down over a full mile per hour. Collectively all of his pitches were down around one mile per hour. There was a day off between starts, he wasn’t even on short rest. Also, small samples apply, but he has held opponents to a .408 OPS on four days’ rest (three starts and 75 total plate appearances). So there isn’t some short rest phenomenon. You’d worry that there is an injury at play. We’ve been given nothing other than data to suggest this is a thing, but I’m going to be nervous until we see him healthy and going full go again.

The last option was one that I didn’t reach for but Al and John apparently discussed it. It is often an explanation I wonder about when a game like this happens. That is that there are pitches being tipped. I’ve often wondered how many times per year a good team identifies at least a little something on a given pitcher. Be that something noticed between starts or even in game. I’m going to bet that a not insignificant amount of the time a given team picks something up on a pitcher. Be it a true tip or just a team deciding they are going to sit on his fastball, it’s a smart approach. That is the more normal pitch in his arsenal and if you are concerned about the splitter, then sit fastball.

Let’s hope that some combination of mechanics or sequencing was allowing the Mets to tee off on his arsenal. Those are things that can be corrected. That wouldn’t explain the drop in velocity, but I just don’t want to imagine this team without its best pitcher. It already has had to survive chunks of time without each of its other two best pitchers in Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon. But it has been Imanaga who has shone brightest and has carried the team through those stretches.

An 11-1 loss that got ugly in a big hurry doesn’t leave a lot of room for positives, but let’s fine three.

1. With a total of six hits and three walks, the Cubs offense wasn’t super likely to win this game even if Imanaga had been on his game. Cody Bellinger was one of only two Cubs who reached base twice. He had a single and a double.
2. Luke Little only needed five batters to record five outs. He did walk one but also struck out one. He inherited two runners and one out when he came in and quickly got a double play.
3. Porter Hodge had a bit more trouble but was still quite effective, striking out five of the ten batters he faced. He recorded seven outs while allowing a single and two walks.

The Cubs bullpen as a whole allowed only one run over six full innings of work. Against a red hot team, that’s a strong showing.

Game 76, June 21: Mets 11, Cubs 1 (36-40)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Cody Bellinger (.094). 2-3, 2B
• Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.061). 0-2, BB, HBP
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.026). 0-3, BB, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.494). 3 IP, 21 batters, 11 H, BB, 10 R, 3 K (L 7-2)

*8th worst WPA game score of the season by a Cub and the first disaster score for him.

• Goat: Christopher Morel (-.124). 1-4, 2B, DP
• Kid: Ian Happ (-.037). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: There wasn’t a ton of leverage in this game after J.D. Martinez’ first inning three-run homer. Three batters into the game the Mets already had a 23% chance of winning. (.177)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Cody Bellinger singled with runners on first and second and no outs in the first. (.078)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Wednesday’s Winner: Kyle Hendricks received 262 of 290 votes.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Shōta Imanaga/Michael Busch +12
• Ben Brown +11
• Jameson Taillon +9
• Ian Happ +7
• Adbert Alzolay/Miguel Amaya -10
• Nico Hoerner -12
• Kyle Hendricks -13
• Christopher Morel -14

*Bellinger up to (+6), Suzuki up to (6.5). They sit tied for sixth and eighth overall. Hoerner nudges up. Imanaga drops down into a tie for first. Morel drops into the cellar, the first time in ages that anyone other than Hendricks has been last. Happ nudges down.

Up Next: The Cubs will try to bounce back with Jameson Taillon (3-3, 3.08) on the hill. 28-year-old Tylor Megill (2-3, 3.52) will make his seventh start of the season. He’s won two of his last three starts, but at nine earned runs in 14⅔ innings over those last three, he isn’t dominant. He hasn’t pitched into the sixth in any of those starts.