2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 78

There is little better as a sports fan than a good narrative. And so it was when Christopher Morel hit a two-run homer in the seventh to cut the gap to just two runs on Ryne Sandberg day that I found myself hoping he could get a chance later to tie or win the game. Alas, most days sports aren’t the stuff of Hollywood. This season is definitely no fairy tale. It’s almost certainly not headed for a happy ending.

It all just feels like playing out the string and it is only June. Of course, the crazy thing is that there is no reason mathematically that this team can’t get back into things. There’s way too much season left to write anything off. A year ago, this team had an identical record after 78 games. That team got itself into contention for the playoffs and hung there until the very end. This season isn’t one where six teams have run away and hidden from everyone. Almost every team in baseball could put things together and be a playoff team. There is plenty of runway left for all but the worst teams.

So the hole isn’t physical yet. It’s mental right now. Our heads and our hearts are telling us that this team just doesn’t have it. We’ve watched the core of this team and we know that it hasn’t been good enough. To be sure, there are reasonable arguments that Michael Busch and Shōta Imanaga have been the best hitter and best pitcher on this team. That Ben Brown and Pete Crow-Armstrong have been the most exciting pitcher and hitter on this team. Only PCA among them was a part at all of last year’s team. So there have been additions and those additions did add value.

So if you are dreaming, then you are dreaming that those additions can be as good or better than they have been. For all but Imanaga, the eyes tell us that we could get more than we have so far. Then you’d want to add to that recipe a healthy dose of the guys who were here to revert to the players that they can be. That is, the core of this team has largely under achieved. Al has talked about it several times. It’s unusual to see such a large swath of the core of a team struggle simultaneously and for such an extended period of time. The team isn’t old by any stretch of the imagination and this isn’t a 1969 the starters have been run into the ground through overuse.

So there are no easy explanations. And it is hard for our hearts to override our brains when they tell us that this just isn’t working and isn’t likely to work. A 4-5 homestand is far from catastrophic. The Cubs caught both the Mets and Cardinals while they were playing well and dropped two of three to each. They caught a struggling Giants team that was itself struggling and they took two of three.

Three of the four wins were actually pretty comfortable, at least by the end. Only one of the losses was particularly lopsided. So the team was at least relatively competitive. The biggest problem is that even a two run deficit feels like they are down 100. They might as well be. Sometimes the other team will steal defeat from the jaws of victory on its own. But most times coming from behind is boosted by a shutdown bullpen and a key contribution or two from the bench. This team has a shaky at best bullpen and no offensive depth. When everyone is healthy, the Cubs usually have one productive bat on the bench. Everyone isn’t healthy and so more days than not, the Cubs have a bench of players who are less than replacement level bats.

There is no great amount of help coming from outside of the current roster. Potentially small boosts from players getting healthy are possible. But by and large, if this team is going to turn things around, it is going to have to happen from within. Management sees what we do and they aren’t going to take on salary trying to improve this team. There is a nominal possibility of a player under team control becomes available. But those types of trades are most often made in the offseason. The impact prospects this organization controls are largely concentrated at positions where they are already getting contributions.

So we are left looking at our budget auto sitting in the driveway and hoping it will morph into that fancy sportscar or luxury vehicle we’ve dreamed of owning. Hoping and wishing rarely change the reality of things. And so we slowly drift off to oblivion. I’ve used the Lucy moving the football analogy often through the years. The thing about that analogy is that along the way that means we had hope. This team just hasn’t given us much of that.

Ho hum. Let’s try to find three positives on an otherwise dreary night on the field.

1. Luke Little worked a perfect ninth inning, striking out two of the three, right in the heart of the Mets order. Little definitely appears to be a thing. Hopefully this season gives him plenty of opportunity to settle in.
2. No Cub had two hits and they drew no walks. That left Nico Hoerner as the only Cub on base twice. He had a single and was hit by a pitch.
3. Christopher Morel supplied the offense with a two-run homer. Morel is on pace for a 30 homer, 90 run batted in, 15 steal, 70 walk season and still be the player that disappoints Cub fans the most. Of all of the things, I’ll be legitimately surprised if he finishes the season with a BABIP anywhere near .208. That hasn’t happened for him since his stop in Low-A back in 2018 at the age of 19, a 93 plate appearance chunk that saw a BABIP of .226. He struck out in over 31 percent of his plate appearances and drew no walks back then. This incarnation of him draws walks in over 11 percent of his plate appearances and strikes out in fewer than 22 percent. He has a blend of power and speed that should actually support a plus BABIP.

Game 78, June 24: Mets 5, Cubs 2 (37-41)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Christopher Morel (.066). 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
• Hero: Nico Hoerner (.056). 1-3, HBP
• Sidekick: Keegan Thompson (.018). 2⅓ IP, 11 batters, H, 3 BB, 2 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Javier Assad (-.188). 4⅓ IP, 20 batters, 7 H, BB, 4 R, HBP (L 4-3)
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.116). 0-4
• Kid: Cody Bellinger (-.079). 1-4

WPA Play of the Game: Francisco Lindor hit a two-run homer with one out in the third, for the first runs of the game. (.176)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Christopher Morel’s two-run homer in the seventh that cut the deficit to two. (.115)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Jameson Taillon received 170 of 181 votes.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Shōta Imanaga/Jameson Taillon +12
• Ben Brown +11
• Michael Busch +9
• Seiya Suzuki +6.5
• Adbert Alzolay/Miguel Amaya/Nico Hoerner/Christopher Morel -10
• Kyle Hendricks -13

*This is the kind of day I think of as a repositioning day. All of the Heroes had a cumulative negative score for the year and all of the Goats had a cumulative positive score. So everything reverts towards the center. A reminder of how difficult it is to get away from 0 in this metric. Assad drops to 3.5, Suzuki drops to 6.5 and Bellinger to 5. Morel and Hoerner increase to -10, dropping Hendricks back into the cellar. Thompson reaches -1.

Up Next: No rest for the weary. The Cubs head to the West Coast for a rematch with the Giants. The Giants check in a game worse than the Cubs at 36-42. Justin Steele (0-3, 3.16) will try once again for his first win. He was good against them last week. The Giants haven’t yet announced a starter. We might see an opener again, as the Giants did last Wednesday at Wrigley Field.