2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 60

If this free fall were any worse for the Cubs, oxygen masks would need to deploy. They continue to nose dive without a lot of sign of it ending. When they do win, it looks like Saturday night, a gritty win that a bounce here or there would have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

The oddest thing to me about this streak is that the Cubs struggled with injuries all of the way back to spring training. Jameson Taillon was injured very early in the spring, costing time for one of the key players on the team before any of the pomp and circumstance of opening day could occur. But even as the early injuries piled on, the Cubs were stacking wins. They were well over a 100-win pace early on. Certainly none of us thought that the step forward for this team would be to join the baseball elite. But it wasn’t hard to imagine that they’d step forward and win 85-90 games. Those were outcomes that appeared to be within reach if things went well for this team even before the hot start.

One by one, most of the players have returned from injury. I’ll not diminish the importance of Julian Merryweather, who is still injured. There have definitely been many games that he could have impacted when healthy and effective. And, of course, any good player effects more than just the games that they participate in. The mere presence effects decision making in both dugouts when you have a good player. The other team knows that at some point they are going to potentially have to face a guy who consistently provides value for his team. In your own dugout, is both reduces the workload of the other players and the stress load.

But by and large, as this team got healthier, this team has performed worse as its gotten healthier. Without chasing down many rabbit holes, I’m going to assume there is a lot of odd timing on both sides of that equation, over performing early and under performing lately. You do worry though about the impacts that psychology can have on physical performance. A piece of momentum is found in the world of psychology. When things are going good, you are able to focus and relax more. I’d assume one or more people in the Cubs dugout would admit the team is pressing a bit right now.

At the same time, I’m going to circle back and question the roster management of this team over the last few years. For a long time after Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer came in, I admired the creativity and decision making of this organization in turning over and managing the roster. The Cubs have seen cost-controlled relievers in key roles for other teams like Jeremiah Estrada, Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson. All players that started their professional career in the Cubs organization and all left before they ran out of options or became costly. Meanwhile on Sunday afternoon, the Cubs got four innings of mop up work from two guys who make a total of more than $25 million between them.

Look, it’s not my money. Do what you want with it. It’s frustrating though when you can’t/won’t/don’t do more to address obvious problems with your roster because you are at or near the tax threshold and don’t want to go over. Kudos to the two failed starters relievers who threw four scoreless innings to close out Sunday’s loss. Maybe there is at least some use for them as a two-ply paper towel for the bullpen, mopping up messes and absorbing innings. Not a lot of bang for the buck, but making the most of a bad situation I guess.

I was happy to see David Bote return to the Cubs on Sunday. Despite having one of the most iconic baseball moments of my lifetime, I’m not expecting him to meaningfully contribute to the outcome for this team. If your 26th player/sixth infielder has a lot of impact on your team, something usually went oddly. Here in 2024 at least, the Cubs seemed to spend a lot of time hoping Nick Madrigal could be David Bote. That is, a steady glove who could get an occasional hit and not be completely overmatched at the plate.

David’s saga has been a weird one for me to understand. In 2022, he had 127 MLB plate appearances and produced a line of .259/.315/.431. That actually works to out to an OPS+ of 106. I mean, if you are going to keep a veteran around who you signed to what was probably an unadvisable contract, it sure doesn’t look like David was so bad that you couldn’t put him on the roster. Particularly, once you confirmed that you could waive and designate him for assignment and not lose him. Then he became a guy you could shuttle, albeit inefficiently back and forth to the minors. It isn’t ideal to have to go through that process every time you send him down. But then it certainly isn’t exactly efficient to pay a minor leaguer $5.5 million.

I’ll leave here one more thought on roster management and it is no way specific to the Cubs, but at the same time is meaningful to the Cubs. I’ll start by saying I have no problem with things like 10/5 rights, protections for veterans from being sent to the minors or even restrictions on the number of times a player can bounce back and forth from the minors in a given season. These are human beings and not pawns in some kind of human chess game. I also believe in these additional rights the players earn over time for longevity.

That said, it is way out of balance how difficult it is to manage an older, ineffective player. That things have developed to the point of where it is basically a third rail to ask an older player to accept demotion is growing increasingly maddening. I only study one team, but I’ll assume the majority of teams contain at least one older player who would benefit from a good long stretch of steady playing time away from the bright lights. You shouldn’t have to create an injury to do so. There should be some hybrid rule that allows for players to be sent down without losing their status and that tries to limit roster shenanigans.

It’s so hard to imagine that there is anything beneficial to whatever remains of Kyle Hendricks’ career that he be used in low leverage situations until his contract expires. By all accounts he’s a terrific guy and I’m sure he’s happy to try to contribute in any way he can. But in a vacuum, I don’t believe for a second that he doesn’t think he can get things worked out. I don’t have any specific recollection of a guy being put into that mop up role and finding themselves. Though the weight of baseball history is so massive, I’m sure I’m forgetting many examples.

Let’s try to find some positive in another dreary loss.

1. Cody Bellinger had three hits, including a double that was the Cubs only extra base hit. He drove in one of the two runs.
2. Nico Hoerner had two his and scored one the run that Cody drove in.
3. Seiya Suzuki had a hit and drew a walk. The top of the Cubs order was collectively 6-13, 2B, BB, RBI, R. The rest of the lineup was 2-21, BB, HBP, RBI, R.

Game 60, June 2: Reds 5, Cubs 2 (29-31)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Cody Bellinger (.065). 3-4, 2B, RBI
• Hero: Michael Busch (.054). 0-0, BB
• Sidekick: Kyle Hendricks (.044). 3 IP, 13 batters, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ben Brown (-.281). 5 IP, 22 batters, 6 H, BB, 5 R, 6 K, HBP
• Goat: Christopher Morel (-.133). 0-3, HBP, DP
• Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.077). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: With two on and two out in the second, the Reds were already up one and then TJ Friedl hit a three-run homer, effectively ending this contest. (.229)

*Cubs Play of the Game: The Cubs were down five in the fifth when Cody Bellinger batted with runners on the corners and one out. Cody singled, giving the Cubs their first run and one of their only glimmers of hope. (.063)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Seiya Suzuki 54, Dansby Swanson 46

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +12
• Ben Brown +11
• Javier Assad +10.5
• Jameson Taillon +9
• Mark Leiter Jr./Michael Busch +6
• Matt Mervis -6
• Christopher Morel -7
• Miguel Amaya -8
• Adbert Alzolay -10
• Kyle Hendricks -19

*These are the days that remind me how much inertia there is bringing players back to the middle of these standings. Ben Brown drops out of the top spot. Kyle Hendricks takes a baby step back towards the pack. Michael Busch enters the top five and Christopher Morel drops down into fourth from the bottom.

Up Next: An off day Monday for the Cubs. I hesitate to say things like now or never. The White Sox make the long travel to face the Cubs this week. The Sox have six fewer wins than any other team in baseball. Ultimatums and lines in the sand are generally pretty silly given the length of a season. But things are going to get ugly in Cubs fandom if this isn’t a looming series win. It’s just a two-game set, but get greedy and get two wins. Then hope Ian Happ goes full beast mode in Cincinnati and carries the Cubs offense with him in four games over the weekend.