What’s been wrong with Dansby Swanson all year, and can it be fixed?

Dansby Swanson’s first Cubs season was a success. He posted 4.8 bWAR and won a Gold Glove, and was at least league-average at the plate with a 100 OPS+ and 104 wRC+. He hit 22 home runs, scored 80 and drove in 81.

This year has been a disaster for Swanson at the plate. He comes into the break with a .632 OPS, 76 OPS+ and 79 wRC+, all of which are pretty bad, although there was a hint just before the All-Star break that he might come out of it. Over his last six games before the break Swanson hit .364/.364/.546 (8-for-22) with a double, a home run and only two strikeouts.

The Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro addressed this with Swanson in a long article published just before the break. She quoted Swanson:

“There’s no way to cut around it, it’s been a struggle,” Swanson told the Tribune on Thursday. “Never fully felt like I’ve gotten going. There’s a couple games and series here and there where it’s like, that’s feeling right. The numbers show that. So it’s like, all right, we’re going in the right direction, and then it would kind of sputter.

“That’s challenging, it’s challenging mentally. Like, it’s hard, but at the same token, that’s why to me there is a lot of confidence moving forward because I haven’t hit a stride yet and so that means it’s coming at some point.”

Here is where the problem might lie:

Hitting coach Dustin Kelly attributes a slight spike in overall exit velocity to Swanson’s ground-ball rate. In an effort to create more line drives and elevate the ball more consistently, Swanson has been working with Cubs hitting coaches on where he is during his swing when his front foot hits the ground.

“There’s some direction issues that he falls into where the hips spin a little bit faster, and then the bat kind of comes across and not through the zone as long as what he’s normally accustomed to,” Kelly said. “We’re just staying through with our drill package and trying to make minor, little adjustments and not wholesale changes.”

So that got me (and BCB reader MN exile) thinking: What is Swanson doing this year differently from last year, when he was at least a decent hitter?

With MN exile’s help, I present to you four sequences of Swanson at the plate. The video on the left is from last year, all from extra-base hits. The video on the right is from this year, all swings and misses. Yes, I realize this is cherry-picking, a bit, but I do think you will see subtle differences. Have a look at all the videos, then I’ll have some thoughts.

Here’s sequence 1. On the left, Swanson homers off Tim Hill of the Padres, April 27, 2023. On the right, he swings and misses against Tyler Anderson of the Angels, July 6, 2024.

Sequence 2: On the left, Swanson hits a double off Drew VerHagen of the Cardinals, May 10, 2023. On the right, Swanson swings and misses against Anderson, July 6, 2024 (this is a different swing and miss from Sequence 1).

Sequence 3: On the left, Swanson hits a triple off Brandon Williamson of the Reds, May 27, 2023. On the right, a swing and miss against Yunior Marte of the Phillies, July 4, 2024.

And, lastly, Sequence 4: On the left, Swanson homers off Ben Lively of the Reds, Aug. 1, 2023. On the right, a swing and miss against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, July 3, 2024.

It’s pretty subtle, but one thing I noticed in all four matched sequences is that Swanson seems more crouched in the 2023 clips, more upright in the 2024 clips. His swing seems to “fly open” more in this year’s videos.

That’s my totally amateur opinion (and of course, I could be totally wrong!), but it does seem to sort of match what Kelly and Swanson are trying to do, based on Montemurro’s article, which continues:

Those struggles against four-seamers can be partially traced to how teams are attacking Swanson. Pitchers have been overwhelmingly slider-heavy. Among the 254 major-league hitters who have seen at least 750 pitches this year, Swanson is tied for ninth in most sliders faced, accounting for 22.3% of the pitches he has seen. They’re getting him to chase those sliders, too, with a 28.3% strikeout rate, .167 average and .185 slugging percentage.

A heavy dose of off-speed stuff can cause a hitter to get caught in between.

“They don’t want to make mistakes over the middle of the plate, so he gets few pitches on the inner third or middle of the plate, and it’s hard when you don’t do damage on those and you miss those,” Kelly said. “You kind of think, ‘Oh, man, that was my one shot.’”

It’s my feeling that the four-day All-Star break will help Swanson reset from a bad first half. The good play over the week or so prior to the break hints that the work he’s been putting in with Kelly is starting to produce results. Hopefully, it’ll lead to a better second half for Swanson.

Many thanks to BCB reader MN exile for putting together the videos for me.