2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 145

I’ve always said that in modern baseball it is possible to pile up a lot of wins late in the season against bad teams just playing out the schedule. Wait, this was the team that formerly boasted the NL’s best record. While the Cubs did recently pile up some late season wins against bad teams, the Dodgers are not one of those teams. And just for kicks, the Cubs took two out of three from them very early in the season too. Hey, the Cubs found an NL team that they have the tiebreaker over! Well, that’s not very helpful either.

This one was simultaneously totally predictable and a little surprising. How is that possible? Well, I told you yesterday that the Cubs boast a 20-6, scratch that, now 21-6 record when Shōta Imanaga starts. The man should receive MVP votes. No, not win it. I’m aware of the superlative seasons several players are having, including another Japanese player on this Dodgers team. I’m just saying, Imanaga has A) been great and B) the Cubs are 54-64 when he doesn’t pitch. That is, a team that would have long since been out of the playoff picture and one of the better teams in the league. If only they could start Shōta every night. Which is crazy when you think about it because most of the rest of the starting pitching has actually been very good all year long.

Imanaga wasn’t dominating in this game, though by any reasonable objective measure, three runs over seven innings against that lineup is an awfully good start. But what made this win surprising is that it is the “shape” of game that the Cubs don’t really have too many of this year. Even in this second half push, that is starting to remind me a little of the 2015 Cubs, the most frequent pattern for a Cubs win is jump out to early lead and just pile on.

This one was different. The teams exchanged runs in the second. Then the Dodgers added single runs in the fourth and fifth. All three of those runs were solo homers against Imanaga. The man is an embodiment of Fergie Jenkins’ advice. Homers won’t kill you if they are of the solo variety. I went to bed with this game 3-1 Dodgers and was pleasantly surprised to see a 6-3 Cubs win.

I was doubly pleasantly surprised that the turnaround didn’t come from a grand slam. Don’t get me wrong, there’s nothing wrong with grand slams. But a lot of grand slams come from a single and a pair of walks in some order and then a grand slam. Hat tip for taking the walks, but they don’t necessarily arise from a sustained offensive attack. This team needs to grow confidence in putting together strings of hits and creating runs.

The Cubs did do all of their damage in one inning and it was aided by three errors. There were also two walks. Was this a thing of beauty? Not really, though the result sure is nice to look at. Nico Hoerner had a key double after the errors and walks to extend the Cubs the lead and Pete Crow-Armstrong put the ball in play in a key situation to add another insurance run. Earlier, Michael Busch had put the ball in play to give the Cubs the lead.

Isaac Paredes had an ill-timed strikeout in the middle of the big inning. But, the Cubs sent nine men to the plate in the eighth, two were walked and there was just the one strikeout. The other six Cubs put the ball in play, the Dodgers defense fumbled away the game. But they can’t do that if you can’t put the ball in play and force them to make plays.

Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge closed it out for the Cubs. These two have been terrific finds by the Cubs front office. Pearson was one of the group of waiver pickups that have really boosted this team and Hodge was a Cubs prospect who I can’t really recall ever really being on the radar as much more than a guy. Even when he came to the team, I thought he would largely be a guy to eat some low leverage innings. But he has ably stepped into the closer role down the stretch.

The odds remain daunting. This team would still need a miracle to reach the playoffs. Chasing one team, you can be aided by the other team falling apart. Chasing two is extremely difficult. It is so unlikely that both are going to do so. So you pretty much have to just keep this impossible mission going. Your mission, should you choose to accept, is to win every single game. You’ll just depress yourself if you look at the numbers. So just enjoy the ride. They are technically playing meaningful September games for the second straight year.

Let’s find three stars in a Cubs win.

Three Stars:

1. Seiya Suzuki had three hits, one was a double. The Cubs had only two extra base hits and the only two walks they drew were in that eighth inning rally. Seiya drove in one run but two scored on the play due to one of those Dodger errors.
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong had two hits. But most importantly, he put the ball in play twice with runners in scoring position. He has a pair of runs batted in to show for it. He has grown so much as a major league player over the last month or so. It’s getting harder to imagine a future where he is not a superstar. Oh yes, always the focus on offense here but also a dramatic catch to preserve the win! That was one of a small handful of catches that not too many other guys make out there. He should actually merit Gold Glove consideration on a somewhat short season. (The most games PCA can play this year is 123.)
3. Nico Hoerner had three hits as well, including the other double. That double came in that eighth-inning rally and it drove in the fifth run and was followed by the sixth run scoring on a groundout after the trailing runner on the double ended at third. Two key insurance runs. Exactly the thing we talk about with the early season bullpen woes. The lead was almost always one. They pushed it to three and two Cubs relievers relatively quietly closed it out.

Game 145, September 9: Cubs 6, Dodgers 3 (75-70)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.361) 3-5, 2B, RBI, R
• Hero: Nico Hoerner (.158). 3-4, 2B, RBI
• Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.115). 2-4, 2 RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Miguel Amaya (-.112). 0-3
• Goat: Isaac Paredes (-.089). 2-5, R
• Kid: Shōta Imanaga (-.063). 7 IP, 26 batters, 7 H, 3 R, 4 K (W 13-3)

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki batted with runners on first and second with no outs, the Cubs down two in the eighth. He singled scoring Ian Happ, but the ball was misplayed and that allowed Danby Swanson to also score and Suzuki to reach second. (.327)

*Dodgers Play of the Game: Tommy Edman’s second homer of the night in the fourth inning gave the Dodgers their first lead at 2-1. (.135)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Michael Busch received 175 of 205 votes.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +20.5
• Christian Bethancourt/Porter Hodge +15
• Seiya Suzuki +13.5
• Javier Assad +12.5
• Miles Mastrobuoni/Adbert Alzolay -10
• Miguel Amaya -11
• Kyle Hendricks -14
• Isaac Paredes -18
• Christopher Morel -20.5

*Suzuki back into the top five, Hoerner up to -3.5, PCA up to -6.5. Amaya drops back into the bottom five, Paredes closes on the cellar and Imanaga takes a tough negative to shrink his lead.

Up Next: The Cubs look to complete an improbable sweep with Jordan Wicks (2-3, 4.03). I hate to even say it, it would be so Cub to win the first two against a pair of highly regarded Dodgers and then struggle with Bobby Miller (2-4, 7.79).