Bleed Cubbie Blue - The Cole Hamels tradeA Chicago Cubs Fan Community Since February 9, 2005https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47557/cubbieblue.png2018-07-27T12:30:02-05:00http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/rss/stream/173854192018-07-27T12:30:02-05:002018-07-27T12:30:02-05:00A look back at Cole Hamels’ no-hitter against the Cubs
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<figcaption>Cole Hamels, about to complete his 2015 no-hitter at Wrigley Field | Photo by David Banks/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Now that Hamels is a Cub, let’s ride the time machine back three years.</p> <p id="jucSNJ">Three years and two days ago, <span>Cole Hamels</span> no-hit the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> at Wrigley Field, ending a streak of 7,920 consecutive games in which the Cubs had at least one hit, dating back nearly 50 years to Sandy Koufax’ perfect game against the Cubs September 9, 1965.</p>
<p id="PXv9Ft">Hamels was traded to the Cubs late Thursday, and will soon make his first appearance in a Cubs uniform.</p>
<p id="tNWNsr">And so I thought I’d take a look back at Hamels’ no-no. Here’s the recap I wrote here about that game, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN201507250.shtml">July 25, 2015</a>. (There have been some minor edits from the original, to replace a video that was there, but no longer available, and to remove a couple of references to articles to be posted the next day.)</p>
<p id="2uAW99">There’s a note below about the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> having the longest active no-hit streak after the Cubs’ was broken. That one, of course, was ended by <span>Jake Arrieta</span> on <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN201604210.shtml">April 21, 2016</a>. The current longest active streak without being no-hit belongs to the <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a>, who were last no-hit <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK199107130.shtml">July 14, 1991</a>, by four <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a> pitchers.</p>
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<p id="3vPijQ">And thus, it’s over.</p>
<p id="yQMDAt">46 days short of 50 years and 80 games shy of 8,000, the longest streak without being no-hit in major-league history ended on a sunny Saturday at Wrigley Field when <span>Cole Hamels</span> of the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> <a href="http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_phimlb_chnmlb_1">no-hit the Cubs 5-0</a>.</p>
<p id="J5asZx">Give the man credit. <span>Cole Hamels</span> is a very, very good pitcher and the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> have been having a rough time hitting lately. The irony is: the mediocre-to-bad teams the Cubs put on the field the last three years managed to keep the streak going. This team, which is supposed to be better, was the one that couldn’t get a hit for one nine-inning game.</p>
<p id="YKvttY">It almost got broken up on the very last play, a fly ball to center field by <span>Kris Bryant</span>. <span>Odubel Herrera</span> went back on it, turned the wrong way, then made a diving catch to preserve the no-no. Even though it went against the Cubs, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/must-c-herrera-helps-hamels/c-294553283?tid=11493214">it (and another catch by Herrera) is worth watching [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="hgLwNP"><div style="max-width: 960px;"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/must-c-herrera-helps-hamels/c-294553283?tid=11493214" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div></div>
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<p id="BKZ5XW">Hamels became just the third visiting pitcher in Wrigley Field history to throw a no-hitter, and the first to not be a <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a> hurler. The first was Fred Toney, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN191705020.shtml">May 2, 1917</a>, a game once famed as a “double no-hitter,” where the Cubs’ Hippo Vaughn took a no-hitter into extra innings, but then gave it up. Vaughn was once considered to have thrown a no-hitter, but that was taken away a number of years ago when MLB ruled a pitcher had to actually have given up no hits and finished the game (and have it go at least nine innings, too) to get credit.</p>
<p id="wqhfoC">The other was Jim Maloney, who threw a 10-inning no-hitter against the Cubs in the first game of a doubleheader <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN196508191.shtml">August 19, 1965</a>, oddly, just three weeks before Sandy Koufax’ perfect game September 9 of that year became the last time before Saturday that the Cubs had been no-hit. Maloney issued 10 walks in that 1-0 win; that’s the last complete-game, 10-inning no-hitter in baseball history.</p>
<p id="R5OqFk">This game was the seventh time the Cubs have been no-hit. The Cubs had been tied with the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> for the fewest times being no-hit for any of the “Original 16” teams. Here’s the complete list, including today’s gem by Hamels:</p>
<blockquote><p id="keuUpU"><a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>: 6<br>Cubs: 7<br><a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a>: 8<br><a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pirates</a>: 9<br>Reds: 9<br><a href="https://www.letsgotribe.com/">Indians</a>: 9<br><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>: 11<br><a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a>: 11 (includes original Washington Senators)<br><a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a>: 13<br><a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a>: 14<br><a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Athletics</a>: 14<br><a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>: 15<br><a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a>: 16<br><a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a>: 17<br><a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Orioles</a>: 17 (includes St. Louis Browns)<br>Phillies: 19</p></blockquote>
<p id="LMl33d">For those of us who took pride in the Cubs getting this far without being no-hit, we at least had the consolation of seeing baseball history. Hamels’ no-hitter is the 290th in major-league history (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_no-hitters">and had already been added to the no-hitter Wikipedia page</a> by the time I started writing this recap) and he was absolutely outstanding. It is just the 18th no-hitter where a pitcher registered 13 or more strikeouts. Now, what do the Phillies do? Hamels has been the subject of many trade rumors -- including being sent to the Cubs -- but what kind of message do they send to their fanbase if they trade him right after he throws a no-hitter?</p>
<p id="8vAwvc">The Cubs came close to a hit only a couple of times, including that last out. Bryant also hit a ball in the first inning that would have been a home run with the wind blowing out Friday, but with breezes off the lake Saturday, it was an out at the warning track. Herrera also made a great diving catch off a <span>David Ross</span> drive in the eighth inning to preserve things for Hamels.</p>
<p id="N20T7f">I do wonder if things might have turned out differently if Joe Maddon had challenged the “neighborhood” play on <span>Anthony Rizzo</span> in the first inning. Generally, that play is given and not really subject to challenge, but it sure looked like <span>Freddy Galvis</span> wasn’t even in the same zip code when he took a relay throw from Cesar <span>Hernandez</span>. Maddon came out to discuss it with the umpires, who got together to talk about it, but no review was requested. What if the reviewers had allowed <span>Dexter Fowler</span>, who had led off the bottom of the first with a walk, to be safe? Then the Cubs would have had two men on and one out and maybe they get to Hamels.</p>
<p id="2Dk8mX">But they didn’t. And now we have witnessed history and the <a href="https://twitter.com/cubsnohitstreak">Cubs No-Hit Streak Twitter account</a> sent out this sad tweet:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">No. 7,921: Cole Hamels has no-hit the Cubs. <br><br>The Streak dies.</p>— Cubs No-Hit Streak (@CubsNoHitStreak) <a href="https://twitter.com/CubsNoHitStreak/status/625074147052253184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 25, 2015</a>
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<p id="lDAC7W">Personally, I hope he keeps the account going and starts again Sunday with No. 1 of a new streak (presumably, the Cubs will get a hit or more tomorrow!).</p>
<p id="4sNC8D">There isn’t much to say about Cubs pitching. <span>Jake Arrieta</span> wasn’t sharp, but he really only made one mistake, hanging a breaking ball to <span>Ryan Howard</span> with two on in the third for a home run, the only runs he allowed in six decent innings. He struck out eight. <span>James Russell</span> had a rare bad outing, helping the Phillies put the game away with a two-run eighth that featured a ridiculously bad throw from Rizzo to... well, somewhere. <span>Starlin Castro</span> appeared out of position, but Rizzo’s throw went nowhere near any base. The way Hamels was dealing, it really didn’t matter.</p>
<p id="sYZiyc">For me, it was my third no-hitter in person. I saw Jack Morris of the Tigers no-hit the White Sox on <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA198404070.shtml">April 7, 1984</a> and, of course, <span>Carlos Zambrano</span>’s no-no against the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a> in Milwaukee <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200809140.shtml">September 14, 2008</a>. I’m not happy the Cubs lost, as they need to start piling up wins, and need one Sunday to avoid getting swept in this series, but at least I can say I witnessed one of the best pitching performances in recent history.</p>
<p id="vYsrKn">Incidentally, Joe Maddon is no stranger to this sort of thing. While he was manager of the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Rays</a> — and while they were a playoff-contending team — they got no-hit four times. Three of them (<span>Mark Buehrle</span>, <span>Felix Hernandez</span>, <span>Dallas Braden</span>) were perfect games. The fourth was thrown by <span>Edwin Jackson</span>. (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201006250.shtml">No, I am not making that up.</a>)</p>
<p id="sHReFa">The longest active streak without being no-hit now belongs to the Reds, who were last no-hit <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN197106230.shtml">June 23, 1971</a> by Rick Wise of the Phillies (naturally!), who hit a pair of two-run homers to win that game 4-0. That streak stands at 7,035 games -- so the Cubs’ record streak is more than five and a half seasons longer!</p>
<p id="c7O9my">Thought you all would like to see my scorecard from this game, so <a href="https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3907182/072515card.0.pdf">here it is</a> (link opens .pdf).</p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/27/17620408/cole-hamels-no-hitter-cubsAl Yellon2018-07-27T11:35:08-05:002018-07-27T11:35:08-05:00The Cole Hamels trade includes Eddie Butler
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<figcaption>Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Good luck in Texas, Eddie.</p> <p id="I6rmTs">There had been rumors that the <span>Cole Hamels</span> trade would involve a major-league player, and we learned Friday morning that was true:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> today acquired LHP Cole Hamels and a cash consideration from the Rangers for RHP Eddie Butler, minor league RHP Rollie Lacy and a player to be named. <a href="https://t.co/uDJaFBAT3c">pic.twitter.com/uDJaFBAT3c</a></p>— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1022878252891860992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 27, 2018</a>
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<p id="iceab8"><span>Eddie Butler</span> was acquired from the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com/">Rockies</a> Feburary 1, 2017 for James Farris and some international bonus money. He’s been up and down from Iowa to the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> and also spent some time on the disabled list in his tenure in Chicago. He had some success, most notably his seven shutout innings against the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> in the 17-inning game <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA201803300.shtml">March 30</a> of this year.</p>
<p id="eUzo1l">Overall as a Cub, Butler posted a 3.98 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 21 appearances (11 starts) in 2017 and 2018. He could wind up in the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a>’ rotation, replacing Hamels.</p>
<p id="IYNFrp">The inclusion of Butler in this trade means that no additional move will be necessary on the 40-man roster, as Hamels will take Butler’s place on both the 25-man and 40-man rosters. The player to be named later will likely be named in the offseason, or some cash will be exchanged.</p>
<p id="RoFSS0">Since Butler was pitching in relief and Hamels will be a starter, a decision will have to be made regarding the place of either <span>Tyler Chatwood</span> or <span>Mike Montgomery</span> in the rotation. Montgomery goes Friday night against the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a>; Chatwood wouldn’t start again until at least next Wednesday in Pittsburgh.</p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/27/17622222/cole-hamels-trade-eddie-butlerAl Yellon2018-07-27T11:00:03-05:002018-07-27T11:00:03-05:00The Cole Hamels trade by the numbers
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<figcaption>Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A look at the lefthander’s stats and what the Cubs can expect from their new starter.</p> <p id="Tm9pjY">There will be charts and tables in this post (oh, yes, there will be charts and tables) but before I can dive into the numbers I just found myself thinking about the following question.</p>
<p id="9EwGqp">What does it mean to be an ace?</p>
<p id="lf0Lsc">Beyond that, what does it mean to be an ace who has postseason experience? A guy who knows exactly what it means to toe the rubber in the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a>? How much of that muscle memory comes into play in a big moment, in a big season? How much can that experience overcome what looked like a season of an ace in decline? How much of that competitive spirit and muscle memory can be activated by joining a first place team in a big trade in July?</p>
<p id="PqYcWL">This post doesn’t contain answers to any of those questions, but I think they are still questions <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> fans should keep in mind as they read this (and every other) piece on the <span>Cole Hamels</span> trade. I mean, for what it’s worth, last year I was sitting on an almost identical place on my couch when I concluded that <span>Justin Verlander</span> <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2017/7/5/15918206/mlb-trade-rumors-justin-verlander-cubs">was done and the Cubs shouldn’t even think about that trade</a>... and frankly, I was obviously wrong. But June 2017 <span>Justin Verlander</span> was having a season that looked a lot like 2018 July <span>Cole Hamels</span>... so...</p>
<p id="VjOUfN">In all seriousness, I don’t think Hamels is going to have a Verlander-type resurgence in Chicago, but the Cubs don’t need him to become a Cy Young candidate to improve their rotation. They need him to be better than <span>Tyler Chatwood</span> and to eat a lot of innings to save the bullpen a bit. To see if he can do that, let’s look at some stats and some pitches.</p>
<h3 id="CCysg6">The Stats</h3>
<p id="lXmVXj"><span>Cole Hamels</span> is a 34-year-old pitcher who is having the worst year of his career. He’s got a 4.72 ERA and a 5.20 FIP, although his xFIP (which is basically FIP but controlled for team and park effects) is 4.18, which indicates that a lot of his struggles are related to factors that a move could certainly help. At 34 it’s possible this is Hamels’ decline, it’s also possible he’s having a bad part of his season and will correct for that in his remaining games with an assist from a defensive upgrade. Below are Hamels’ stats since 2012 plus a glimpse of his total postseason innings and ERA.</p>
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<p id="L0glqU">A few things stand out right away, his production by WAR has been in steady decline. He also threw substantially fewer innings in 2017 <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article149108339.html">due to a strained oblique</a>. Prior to 2017, he was one of baseball’s most reliable 200-inning arms, although it would by highly unlikely for him to hit that number in 2018.</p>
<p id="2RUqmz">I included his postseason innings and ERA, because his 98⅓ innings is a substantial amount of postseason experience and he’s frequently had success there (we won’t get into what happened in the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201610060.shtml">ALDS in 2016</a>...).</p>
<p id="VFNtEi">While I’m sure the Cubs would love a few months of 2014 Cole Hamels, that’s probably unlikely, so how does he stack up with their current starters?</p>
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<p id="Vt4r69">Hamels represents a substantial upgrade in the walks category, which I know will please a lot of BCB readers. He represents a lot more risk in terms of HRs and his ground ball rate is also substantially lower than Chatwood’s. Wrigley Field is a kinder park for hitters than Globe Life Park, but if the wind is blowing out during Hamels' starts, things could get out of hand pretty quickly.</p>
<p id="zrF2M1">I also took some time to compile Hamels game scores for the season. He’s been a much better pitcher on the road than at home (home ERA - 6.41, away ERA - 2.93, which could be a plus for the Cubs) but his last month of work has been particularly troubling against some of baseball’s worst teams. I imagine that’s why the Cubs didn’t have to spend all that much to acquire him.</p>
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<h3 id="G3NaDp">The Pitches</h3>
<p id="StUUCY">Hamels has changed his pitch makeup pretty substantially in the last couple of years. He throws a fourseam fastball that sits at 92 miles per hour about 22 percent of the time. He also throws a cutter about 20.5 percent of the time and a circle change about 19.5 percent of the time. The remaining 38 percent of his pitches are split between a slider, sinker and curveball. The slider is new to his pitches this year, as you’ll see below.</p>
<p id="kpP0aO">First up, pitches by velocity. While the fastball and cutter are down a titch, his other pitches have stayed pretty level over the years:</p>
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<cite>Brooks Baseball</cite>
<figcaption>Pitch type and velocity</figcaption>
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<p id="EheLo6">I’m not sure if his makeup changed substantially because of his new park or because of that slight dip in velocity, but whatever it was, Hamels has made significant adjustments in the last few years as you can see below:</p>
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<cite>Brooks Baseball</cite>
<figcaption>Pitch type and usage</figcaption>
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<p id="UQtYEO">One of the driving factors of that change may be the result of his fastball being hit more frequently and for more power as you’ll see from both charts below. The first is opponent batting average against each of Hamels' pitches, the second is slugging against each of his pitches.</p>
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<cite>Brooks Baseball</cite>
<figcaption>Batting average against Hamels by pitch type</figcaption>
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<cite>Brooks Baseball</cite>
<figcaption>Slugging against Hamels by pitch type</figcaption>
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<h3 id="MorIOS">Takeaways</h3>
<p id="6IdRk9">This is a low-risk, high-reward move by a Cubs team that needed pitching depth at the deadline. The worst case scenario is that Hamels continues to pitch exactly has he has for the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a>, he looks a lot like 2017 <span>John Lackey</span> and doesn’t pitch in the postseason. A more likely option is that he improves a bit with the change of scenery and a substantially better defense behind him. That would give the Cubs another solid arm with a lot of postseason experience behind him. </p>
<p id="i9S896">And then, there’s always the small sliver of a chance that he channels his inner Verlander...</p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/27/17620290/cole-hamels-trade-by-the-numbersSara Sanchez2018-07-27T10:00:02-05:002018-07-27T10:00:02-05:00In the Cole Hamels trade, determining who to send back is actually simple
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<figcaption>Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A look at the thought process that accompanies a deal like this one.</p> <p id="kAeorV">Some people grow frustrated over the trade periods of July and August. With so many rumors, which ones should you chase? How much energy should be expelled on each one? How can you realistically know what sorts of returns might be being obtained? The prospects are so many unfamiliar names. Theo Epstein has a formula. To be honest, it’s rather the same as the formula he used building his pitching staffs in his own pipelines. This is a look at the simplicity of the <span>Cole Hamels</span> trade.</p>
<p id="Q1w67Y">Do you remember back when the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> were terrible? When Epstein was looking to trade middling talent, he was a bit predictable, after a while. He traded <span>Alfonso Soriano</span> for... a pitcher in A-Ball. The <span>Andrew Cashner</span>-for-<span>Anthony Rizzo</span> trade also added a pitcher in A-Ball. Shawn Camp was signed as a free agent, with the hopes of trading him for a pitcher in A-Ball.</p>
<p id="krOzLn"><span>Marlon Byrd</span> brought back a pitcher in A-Ball (<span>Hunter Cervenka</span>). <span>Jeff Baker</span> brought a pitcher in A-Ball (Marcelo Carreno). <span>Tony Campana</span> brought two pitchers from A-Ball, in <span>Jesus Castillo</span> and Erick Leal. Most of these trades listed were all between the start of 2012, and the beginning of 2013.</p>
<p id="4Rm8zO">Most of those pitchers accomplished very little. However, each case is an entity onto its own. Carreno and Castillo both had their own pitching mechanics to master. With limited success. However, Castillo brought back major league talent later (Joe Smith). Cervenka logged MLB time.</p>
<p id="tvND98">“What do long-ago trades have to do with anything?”</p>
<p id="GDVff5">Teams that are rebuilding want to upgrade their pitching. Regardless where they are rebuilding from, a pitcher looks like a one-in-ten chance at being useful in Double-A and Triple-A. Especially if he hasn’t had to struggle much yet. With everyone using the “Epstein Rebuild Book” as a guide, it makes perfect sense. It’s a case of simplicity.</p>
<p id="97vIN0">Recently, the Cubs added a rental reliever in <span>Jesse Chavez</span> in trade. To add him, the bait was Ricky Tyler Thomas, a seventh-round selection in 2017. Thomas was better than the Midwest League. </p>
<p id="h8oeNL">As trade talk switched to the Cubs adding Hamels, the guesses on the talent were...... amusing. “For Hamels, we’ll get Miguel Amaya.” “Alex Lange or Brendon Little would make sense.” Apparently, the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> wanted another pitcher that was better than the Midwest League. Their primary return on <span>Cole Hamels</span> appears to be Rollie Lacy, who was better than the Midwest League.</p>
<p id="R0cC2v">Across the league, teams are trading rated prospects, and dismissing the Cubs as being a system “with no depth.” The two assessments don’t align with reality. If the Cubs are getting rentals not much worse than the other players being rented, and the Cubs are getting the arms with “unknown” talent, the Cubs must have a bit of depth.</p>
<p id="lPJ9w0">***</p>
<p id="U1wcPr">Perhaps, by now, the lightbulbs of your synapses are starting to flicker as in unison. When Epstein is looking for a rental pitcher, a team can toss the recently released Cubs Top 30 list in the paper shredder. </p>
<p id="CS8idu">“Ooooh, I want your lefty that throws 97 (Brailyn Marquez).”</p>
<p id="U9q756">“He’s not available.”</p>
<p id="gVlcem">“Keegan Thompson or Trevor Clifton.”</p>
<p id="Qulf54">“No, and no.”</p>
<p id="sh1Zan">“That’s going to cut in on your return.”</p>
<p id="LpNjAY">“True dat. But I have pitchers in South Bend and Myrtle Beach that you should be interested in.”</p>
<p id="cvPobE">Why does Epstein think that teams will always be willing to “settle” for pitchers in A-Ball? Because he did. Some teams have a decidedly good talent pipeline. I’ve listened to a number of Down East Wood Ducks games against Myrtle Beach this season. A Rangers affiliate, Rangers pitchers often have one thing in common: upside. </p>
<p id="rdJHHG">For some, the upside sends them through the Advanced-A Carolina League rather quickly. However, a great many struggle. Because a great number of pitchers struggle at any level, and always have. The Wood Ducks are 46-59 in the league this season, and lag the Pelicans in pitching. Which means, pitchers in the Cubs system at the A-Ball level are more likely to be successful at the level than the Rangers pitchers in the same range.</p>
<p id="VVnc1u">Your lightbulbs are working now. If you have a relative strength in your system, as compared to another team’s system, that is where you should start looking for trade options. Too many people look at it the other way. “Trade for <span>Chris Archer</span>.” Except, the Tampa system is so deep, they have no reason to want to trade for Lacy, Thomas, or someone else similar.</p>
<p id="iscjPj">Epstein knows what he wants to trade. He knows who he wants to trade. And, more importantly, who he doesn’t want to trade. He takes his list of 20 or so names to general managers who might value them, and he headstarts his trade talks there. He wasn’t trading for <span>J.A. Happ</span> if he had to outspend what was offered there. His goal is to improve his team for October. Not surrender the future.</p>
<p id="9tlMm4">***</p>
<p id="V2hLTJ">One final piece of the simplicity puzzle is important to remember. While most teams love to look upside between the draft and international venues, the Cubs have a rather simple question they ask of their scouts, it seems.</p>
<p id="wy27Tu">“Does he throw 95?”</p>
<p id="jN5H7g">“Is his primary off-speed offering a putaway pitch at the MLB level?”</p>
<p id="M7oNYU">“Is he an ace?”</p>
<p id="LpAe0t">No. No. No. And your lightbulbs went out. When a Cubs scout is watching a game in Kansas, Georgia, Arizona, or Oregon, the question is rather basic. Particularly when looking for down-the-line talent.</p>
<p id="Lh4TSB">“Will this guy be better than the Midwest League?”</p>
<p id="luroJV">If the Cubs can add six to eight pitchers between the sixth and 26th rounds of any draft that are “better than the Midwest League,” they will have rather inexpensive ammunition to add talent to their pipeline for the stretch run. Next season. The year after, Whenever.</p>
<p id="u92iAF">Some teams will be at a point of their rebuild where they are willing to trade rental talent for pitching prospects from the prior draft’s second and third days. Why? Because finding enough pitching to stock eight or nine affiliates with quality arms 12-16 deep is hard to do. Pitchers that will be good enough to get hitters out in the Midwest League will always hold an appeal. Especially when they’re 24 months or more away from needing to be included on the Rule 5 lists.</p>
<p id="0PFcJK">I didn’t especially want Lacy included in trade talks, because he has been rather good. However, other teams have scouting bureaus, as well. If a team leads their successful pursuit to upgrade their pitching staff at the big league level with a third-day draft pick from the preceding draft, you take that almost every single time.</p>
<p id="MMIGfd">Will Hamels be a successful pitcher with the Cubs? The important thing is, my discussion of the trade took over 1,100 words to get there. He’ll be what he is. The Cubs are paying about $4 million for him this season, and might bring him back in 2019. The important thing from my perspective is the cost of acquisition was reasonable.</p>
<p id="qXLiNE">For the string of aggressive trades being made this month, the only ones that will look good long term are based on team success. Neither <span>Manny Machado</span>, <span>Joakim Soria</span>, nor any of the others can guarantee that. Lift the trophy, and the trades were good. Get dumped early, and the prospects are still gone.</p>
<p id="UUaRfV">Regardless how October plays out, Lacy and Thomas were selected to be developed. They were developed, and another team wanted them. The value was mutual. When armchair execs are looking for a return on a rental talent, you can look at a Top 30 list. Or a national Top 100 list. Or, you can look at Epstein’s most recently selected trade-eligible draft picks. Start somewhere around round six, with guys who were overlooked. And see which ones pitched well in the Midwest League.</p>
<p id="axIFE8">Those seem to be his currency for adding short-term talent. Brilliant in its simplicity. Your lightbulbs are glowing. And, next February and March, I’ll be tracking <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-baseball">college baseball</a> games for pitchers who seem... I think you can help with this one in unison... “better than the Midwest League.”</p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/27/17620816/cole-hamels-trade-cubs-rangers-simpleTim Huwe2018-07-27T08:00:26-05:002018-07-27T08:00:26-05:00The Cole Hamels trade in 500 words
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<figcaption>Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Here’s how this trade will affect the Cubs going forward.</p> <p id="NpVp5H">The <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a>’ acquisition of <span>Cole Hamels</span> on Thursday night from the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> might have finally put the nail in the coffin for <span>Tyler Chatwood</span>. At least as a starter. While details are still emerging on the trade, it looks like the Cubs are picking up just $4 million of Hamels’ remaining salary this season, and only sending Rollie Lacy and a PTBNL. Hamels is in the midst of the worst season of his storied career, but he could still prove to be a valuable player for the Cubs down the stretch, even with his 4.72 ERA. </p>
<p id="AtiQEJ">Hamles’ velocity is right in line with his career average, so it doesn’t appear as if he’s lost anything on his pitches. His walk rate is a bit higher than his career norms, but it’s been right on par with his last two seasons. But once we look at his batted ball info, we find the underlying issue. Out of all the qualified starting pitchers in baseball this year, Hamels ranks second<sup> </sup>in Hard% rate, giving up a hard-hit ball 44.9 percent of the time. This would explain his relatively high BABIP of .296, and his 1:5 HR/FB ratio. </p>
<p id="caiPa2">It’s no secret that Globe Life Park is a hitter’s haven, <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor">it raanks first</a><sup> </sup>in both runs and homers in terms of park factors this year, even ahead of Coors Field. And that shows in Hamels’ splits. At home this season, Hamels sported an unsightly 1-7 record with a 6.41 ERA. On the road, however, he owned a much more palatable 4-2 record to go along with a 2.93 ERA. Removing Hamels from the launching pad in Arlington and taking him out of the top heavy American League West will undoubtedly help his ability to get guys out, even if his peripherals this season are poor. Oh, and by the way, Hamels owns a 1.76 career ERA over 41 innings at Wrigley Field, including his no-hitter in 2015. </p>
<p id="6pUq0a">On top of simply providing another starter for the rotation, Hamels comes with loads of playoff experience. He’s been to the playoffs seven times, the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> twice, and owns a 3.48 ERA in October. While it’s probably shortsighted to think he can produce at the same level in the postseason as he did in a <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> uniform, we’ve all seen the impact a veteran presence can have on this clubhouse (See: Ross, David). </p>
<p id="mdATHY">This is exactly the type of deal that this front office wanted to make. Acquiring a grizzled, innings eater in Hamels, the Cubs found a replacement for <span>Tyler Chatwood</span> without trading a someone from the Major League squad and in the process, left themselves about $9 million under the luxury tax limit to play with to acquire another reliever. And if all goes well? The Cubs have another year of Hamels for $20 million via a club option, or they can pay a $6 million buyout. He had a bad first half, but if he provides a <span>Justin Verlander</span>-type impact, he’ll be well worth that extra year of control.</p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/27/17620634/cole-hamels-trade-cubs-rangersAlex Van Zante2018-07-26T20:19:41-05:002018-07-26T20:19:41-05:00Cubs acquire Cole Hamels from Rangers
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<p>The Cubs have a new starting pitcher.</p> <p id="aBiRAn">Three years and one day after <span>Cole Hamels</span> no-hit them, breaking their record of 7,920 games without being no-hit, Hamels is now a member of the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Chicago Cubs</a>:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Deals is in place to send Cole Hamels to the Chicago Cubs.</p>— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) <a href="https://twitter.com/Evan_P_Grant/status/1022642576447418368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 27, 2018</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> moving toward a Cole Hamels deal that would be centered around lower-level minor-league prospects and salary relief for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rangers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rangers</a>. Something to monitor: Class-A Myrtle Beach right-hander Rollie Lacy was scratched from tonight’s start.</p>— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) <a href="https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/1022633250450231297?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 27, 2018</a>
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<p id="NavvBE">Hamels has about $8 million left on his contract for this year, and a $20 million team option with a $6 million buyout for 2019. (He also has a vesting option for 2019 that won’t vest because he won’t throw enough innings this year to do it.) So the Cubs are on the hook for about $14 million for Hamels, and the $8 million likely puts them very close to the luxury-tax limit of $197 million for 2018.</p>
<p id="2ocqo5">Hamels, who will turn 35 in December, has a 4.72 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 20 starts with the <a href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> this year. That doesn’t look good, but Globe Life Park has been an extreme hitters’ park this year. Hamels, home vs. road:</p>
<blockquote><p id="6hvrK1">Home: 6.41 ERA, 1.508 WHIP in 10 starts, 59 innings, 16 home runs allowed<br>Away: 2.93 ERA, 1.226 WHIP in nine starts, 55⅓ innings, seven home runs allowed</p></blockquote>
<p id="qxwjD6">That’s a pretty extreme home/road split, and the Cubs obviously hope Hamels’ road numbers will translate over to pitching in Wrigley Field and against National League opponents.</p>
<p id="EO8Qh4">There’s been no official confirmation from either the Cubs or Rangers, but you’ll note in Patrick Mooney’s tweet that Rollie Lacy was scratched from a start at Myrtle Beach tonight, so it’s possible he’ll be included in this deal. </p>
<p id="DzUHmQ">This deal will give the Cubs three lefthanded starters.</p>
<p id="KnKoT5">We’ll obviously have much more on this trade Friday. Hamels last pitched July 23 (Monday), so he could be available to start as early as Saturday, if the Cubs want to change around probable starters already listed for the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> series (<span>Jose Quintana</span> is currently scheduled Saturday and Kyle Hendricks Sunday).</p>
<p id="TdhUj0">Welcome to the Cubs, <span>Cole Hamels</span>. You don’t have to throw a no-hitter... just give us two months’ worth of solid pitching, and some postseason, too.</p>
<p id="c8uY8O">A reminder that someone will have to be taken off the 40-man roster when Hamels is added, as the 40-man is currently full.</p>
<p id="dNifum">UPDATE: Here are more details on exactly what will be included in this trade.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just to be clear on whenever Rangers Hamels trade is announced, return will be RHP Rollie Lacy, two other minor leaguers & some transfer of cash (expect Rangers to pay bulk of the $14 mm owed Hamels).</p>— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) <a href="https://twitter.com/Evan_P_Grant/status/1022841924611461120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 27, 2018</a>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/7/26/17620350/cubs-acquire-cole-hamels-from-rangersAl Yellon