Bleed Cubbie Blue - The 12 days of Cubsmas 2020A Chicago Cubs Fan Community Since February 9, 2005https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47557/cubbieblue.png2021-01-05T15:30:00-06:00http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/rss/stream/219675402021-01-05T15:30:00-06:002021-01-05T15:30:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Nine strikeouts in a Kyle Hendricks Opening Day start
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<figcaption>Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Professor started the Cubs season with a gem</p> <p id="szVWTy">Opening Day might be better than Christmas for me. There is so much hope and possibility. The long wait of the offseason is finally over. The bunting goes up all over Wrigleyville (yes, houses also put up bunting sometimes, because Wrigleyville). </p>
<p id="9NEoUV">It is a beautiful thing to walk up to the old ballpark at the corner of Clark and Addison, hearing the strains of the organ playing and wondering what witticism Murphy’s Bleachers will put on their board for that first game.</p>
<p id="OGf6fE">Even in 2020, maybe especially in 2020, Opening Day felt like a holiday. Admittedly, there were no crowds, just a handful of bleacher bums hanging out at Ballhawk Corner, hoping they could snag a souvenir. But with everyday impacted by stay-at-home orders the return of baseball was such a treat.</p>
<p id="C7yXbt">Kyle Hendricks got the ball on Opening Day. The player we call the Professor is as stoic as they come. Game Seven of the <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> didn’t rattle him at all, and neither did toeing the rubber on the strangest Opening Day in modern history.</p>
<p id="jblxzc">Let’s be really clear about something - Kyle Hendricks is criminally underrated by baseball and some of the stats sabermetricians love. FIP and DRA don’t particularly like him because he pitches to too much contact, but the results speak for themselves:</p>
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<p id="hrUz6X">In 2020 among qualified starters, he was tied for 17th-best in the league in WAR among pitchers, 13th in ERA, 3rd in innings pitched, and 1st in BB/9. </p>
<p id="TGdDoS">But on Opening Day he found another level that may be my favorite mode of Kyle Hendricks — the mode where he has ridiculous swing and miss stuff as he cruises to a complete game shutout. </p>
<p id="SGJh8V">The pitcher many compare to Hall of Famer Greg Maddux missed a Maddux by 3 pitches as he just baffled the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers — </a><a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-07/24/f51d9a2f-ad4da111-cb06fd34-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">striking out nine [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="L8tI9H">I also just couldn’t get enough of this postgame interview. I mean, it’s well known that Kyle Hendricks only has one mood. In case you are unfamiliar with this meme, this is Kyle Hendricks:</p>
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<figcaption>The many moods of Kyle Hendricks</figcaption>
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<p id="dYE2Xw">So it was amazing to see Hendricks laughing, smiling, and joking around with the guys who <a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-07/24/df09636a-75f8dbb1-588fd74d-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">threw his ice bath a little too low [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="ybqo4W">Even with the current “for sale” sign out at the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> Front Office, Hendricks <em>should </em>be a safe bet to anchor the Cubs rotation going forward. After all, the return the Cubs <em>should</em> demand for having a top 20 pitcher in baseball locked up through 2024 <em>should</em> be astronomical. </p>
<p id="tAjQSE">Here’s hoping Kyle gets the ball again on Opening Day at Wrigley Field, this time with a few socially distant and vaccinated fans in the stands to appreciate his craft.</p>
<p id="s27zFg"><em>On the ninth Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: nine strikeouts in a Kyle Hendricsk Opening Day start, eight different starting pitchers in 2020, seven incredible Len Kasper calls, six Cubs players with WAR over 1, five strikeouts in an Alec Mills no-hitter, a four game delay in the season due to COVID-19, a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and one </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em><strong>World Series</strong></em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/1/5/22215530/12-days-cubsmas-nine-strikeouts-kyle-hendricks-opening-day-startSara Sanchez2021-01-04T17:15:00-06:002021-01-04T17:15:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Eight different starting pitchers in 2020
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<figcaption>Jon Lester in his final regular season appearance for the Cubs against the White Sox. | Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>And at least four of those are no longer on the Cubs</p> <p id="Tvv1dC">A lot of things are going to look different when the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> take the field on the North Side of Chicago in 2021, and one of the places this will be most evident is the Cubs starting rotation. In the shortened 2020 season the Cubs had eight different pitchers start nine-inning games (Tyson Miller threw two innings to open Game 2 of a seven-inning doubleheader in August and so gets an asterisk). Incredibly, four of those pitchers are no longer on the team. Let’s take a look at how each of those pitchers fared during the shortened season.</p>
<h3 id="pq5PYu">Yu Darvish</h3>
<p id="k5gYJb">I feel like all I’ve done over the last week is write about how big of an impact Darvish had on the 2020 Cubs and how impossible he will be to replace. Darvish threw 76 innings across 12 games for a 2.01 ERA that only slightly over-performed his minuscule 2.23 FIP. This one-hit, 11-strikeout game against the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> in August was <a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/13/1872b3db-ac56377d-5931da16-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">indicative of his dominance in 2020 [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<h3 id="ZPsxOZ"></h3>
<h3 id="xOuEbg">Kyle Hendricks</h3>
<p id="MnWgfH">Despite our friends over at Pinstripe Alley wishing the Cubs would trade them Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs Opening Day starter is not on the trading block (to my knowledge). Hendricks threw 81⅓ innings in 2020, more than any other Cubs starter, and will get a well-deserved chance to be the squads indisputable ace in 2021. His 2.88 ERA over-performed his 3.55 FIP considerably in 2020, but that’s practically systemic with Hendricks at this point. FIP doesn’t appreciate that Hendricks pitches to contact so much. I’m more interested in the fact that his BB/9 absolutely plummeted to 0.89. Let’s take a look at the time <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/18/7ca496fe-a98a503f-b4192eca-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">he struck out 10 Twins over 8 innings in September [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<h3 id="eEoQQP"></h3>
<h3 id="7R0v73">Adbert Alzolay</h3>
<p id="F3k9ID">By Fangraphs WAR the third most valuable starting pitcher for the Cubs in 2020 was Adbert Alzolay. I mean, don’t get me wrong, it’s a pretty big drop off from Hendricks’ 1.9 WAR to Alzolay’s 0.5 WAR, but for a farm system that has struggled to develop starting pitching, Alzolay’s 2020 offers some reasons for optimism. He still walks way too many batters (14.9 percent to Hendricks’ 2.5 percent or Darvish’s 4.7 percent) but the stuff plays and his K/9 of 12.23 is impressive. He threw 21⅓ innings for an ERA of 2.95 off a FIP of 3.05 in 2020. His best start was his first start against the Cardinals where he threw <a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/19/2801a3a9-9b709c09-4bdf2eac-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">five innings of shutout baseball while striking out six [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<h3 id="fFne8P"></h3>
<h3 id="I2iKcd">Tyler Chatwood</h3>
<p id="FCtWH2">Oh, what a wild ride the Tyler Chatwood era was for Cubs fans. The stuff is absolutely electric when its under control but the control issues for Chatwood were so pronounced early in his tenure with the Cubs that he wound up spending most of 2019 in the bullpen. It really looked like he had figured it out in 2020 only to be sidelined by a forearm strain at the end of August. He only threw 18⅔ innings for the Cubs in 2020, but the first 12⅔ of those were truly impressive outings, <a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/01/08283a25-aff3fe0b-895e5d33-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">like this start against the Pirates on August 1 [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="PtkXgw"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/01/08283a25-aff3fe0b-895e5d33-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
<h3 id="KazXtP"></h3>
<h3 id="ImAkTM">Jon Lester</h3>
<p id="MlChl7">While Jon Lester is obviously nearing the end of an outstanding career the Cubs would do well to bring him back for one year so fans can give him the sendoff he deserves. In fact, he’s the only pitcher who is currently a free agent on this list I think the Cubs should bring back. He was worth slightly more WAR than Mills in 2020, but his leadership and presence could be huge for guys like Alzolay who will likely be starting for the first time. He threw 61 innings for a career high ERA of 5.16 in 2020. By far his best outing was <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/11/8f67feac-df364479-ad29ddc9-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">this game against the Brewers in September [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<h3 id="pJUtfA"></h3>
<h3 id="QiyJ07">Alec Mills</h3>
<p id="vekiWt">I love absolutely everything about the Alec Mills story, in fact I highly recommend you check out <a href="https://www.unrivaled-sports.com/inside-the-jersey-featuring-alec-mills/">this interview that dropped today</a>. Additionally I am thrilled he’ll be a Cub until at least 2026. That said, the pitcher <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/1/1/22209533/12-days-of-cubsmas-five-strikeouts-alec-mills-no-hitter">who tossed an unlikely no-hitter in 2020</a> reverted back to his mean a bit at times in 2020. His 4.48 ERA is probably closer to reality than the 2.75 number he put up in 2019. He probably slots into the rotation after new Cub Zach Davies and maybe behind Alzolay if Adbert can get the walks under control. Let’s take another look at Mills’ no-hitter because as Len Kasper said, <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/ab4fdfcb-174c830a-003d63e5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">no-hitters never get old [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<h3 id="odu0ZY"></h3>
<h3 id="LNrA7d">José Quintana</h3>
<p id="UiOHHa">It’s going to be a painful few years watching Eloy Jiménez and Dylan Cease on the South Side of Chicago. They were sent there for Quintana who was supposed to solidify the Cubs rotation through 2020, but rarely put together the numbers fans anticipated from the lefthander. Quintana made one start for the Cubs in 2020 in which he only threw two innings. He’s only 31 years old (he turns 32 in a month) and should find other teams interested in his talents for 2021. </p>
<h3 id="Gc0gnZ">Colin Rea</h3>
<p id="ZTww9y">Rea made two starts for the Cubs in 2020, one of which was Game 2 of a seven-inning doubleheader. He should figure into the 2020 rotation or bullpen conversation, but his 5.79 ERA over 14 innings doesn’t exactly scream confidence despite his FIP of 4.98 suggesting that should have been closer to 5.</p>
<p id="O6fGdr"><em>On the eighth Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: eight different starting pitchers in 2020, seven incredible Len Kasper calls, six Cubs players with WAR over 1, five strikeouts in an Alec Mills no-hitter, a four game delay in the season due to COVID-19, a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and one </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em><strong>World Series</strong></em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/1/4/22213854/12-days-of-cubsmas-eight-different-starting-pitchers-in-2020Sara Sanchez2021-01-03T17:40:28-06:002021-01-03T17:40:28-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Seven incredible Len Kasper calls
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<figcaption>Len Kasper ready to call a regular season game at Wrigley Field in 2014 | Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Len’s move from Cubs TV to Sox radio was surprising.</p> <p id="5MKHNa">Last year about this time Len Kasper was kind enough to join Andi Cruz Vanecek and I for an episode of Cuppa Cubbie Blue. None of us had any idea what the 2020 season would have in store. I certainly had no idea that this would be Len’s last season as the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> play-by-play announcer. But I’ve been thinking a lot about one particular part of that interview - the part where we asked about his favorite call, and I decided that the Days of Cubsmas would not be complete without a tribute to some of the greatest moments of Cubs baseball as called by Len Kasper over the years.</p>
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<p id="6iQxgP">A couple of notes, with the exception of the number one call here, <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/len-kaspers-12-best-calls-cubs-tv-play-play-man">most of these were mentioned in an article written on NBC Sports</a> after Len announced he’d be moving to the South Side. I did filter that longer list, first by WPA and then just by my personal favorite moments. </p>
<p id="Uw4TD2">Let’s kick it off with the moment Kasper refers to as his favorite call. Incidentally, this is also the second highest WPA regular season event that Len Kasper called during his time as the Cubs play-by-play announcer.</p>
<h3 id="ERJ1Z5">Aramis Ramirez walks it off — June 29, 2007</h3>
<p id="ns7S8c">I had the celebration of this walkoff as the screen on my computer and phone for years. It’s a moment of pure joy in the Cubs first competitive season during Len’s tenure. It’s also the moment that defined the 2007 Cubs who didn’t have a great start to the season but put together a seven game winning streak to scratch back to .500 on the backs of <a href="https://youtu.be/ZRQlrE5aNwQ">this walk-off home run [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="fn0bH6">Len’s voice cracks a bit as he calls this one, the same way I imagine all of our voices sounded after cheering this incredible moment. Whether you were in the bleachers or on your couch, this one is unforgettable. </p>
<h3 id="p1C4di">Kris Bryant arrives — July 27, 2015</h3>
<p id="k7fRpE">The 2015 season had a bit of a surreal quality to it. We all knew the Cubs were on their way, but I don’t know if any of us were prepared for the way they would storm the NL Central in the second half of 2015. The kids were early, and it was wonderful. Unlike the 2007 team, the Cubs were over .500 with a 51-46 record coming into this game against the <a href="https://www.purplerow.com">Rockies</a>, but they were also 11½ games behind a <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> team that looked like a juggernaut. Kris Bryant had joined the team three months earlier after being held in the minors for an extra year of service time when he hit (at least by WPA) <a href="https://youtu.be/rSw9GPz9D0g">the most clutch home run of his career [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="c3eJzy">As the celebration continues around home plate and in the stands you can hear a classic Len “Can you believe that ninth inning?” It was the first of many unbelievable comebacks during a golden age of Cubs baseball.</p>
<h3 id="3PBTxj">Javy things — June 26, 2017</h3>
<p id="4bnzPM">June 2017 was a time of borderline panic in and around Bleed Cubbie Blue. The returning champion Chicago Cubs were struggling to maintain a .500 record and in the game threads it felt like the Cubs universe could collapse at any moment. It was more than fine, and the Cubs would finish strong to win the division with a 92-70 record. It was also the year that Javier Báez would emerge as El Mago on the back of <a href="https://youtu.be/1_plHIDFyUY">unbelievable defensive plays like this one [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="eYnc9o">I don’t remember if the t-shirt or the play came first, but Len’s call of “two-thirds of the world is covered by water and the other third is covered by Javier Báez” is one of the greatest lines for this era of Cubs baseball. </p>
<h3 id="5HIDb7">Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitter — September 14, 2008</h3>
<p id="UQZDTd">One of my favorite quirks of baseball history is that only two no-hitters have been thrown in Miller Park and Cubs pitchers own both of them. I wrote about Alec Mills’ no-hitter earlier in this series, but on September 14, 2008 a Cubs vs. <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com">Astros</a> game was moved to Milwaukee due to Hurricane Ike in a move that probably didn’t endear the Astros to MLB given Cubs’ fans proximity to Wrigley North. At one point during the ninth inning Kasper notes “this is technically a home game for the Astros.” The Cubs were dominant in 2008 but no one had any idea Carlos Zambrano was <a href="https://youtu.be/g8vwWTATCqs">about to throw the best game of his life [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="uPezsm">This is another call where Kasper’s voice breaks slightly as he calls the final out. Those are some of his most endearing moments as a broadcaster, the way he conveys the excitement we are all feeling in that moment with such sincerity. </p>
<h3 id="gi89qc">Reed Johnson’s amazing catch — April 26, 2008</h3>
<p id="RtBywT">You all know I am a sucker for great defense and Reed Johnson was the best centerfielder I’ve seen play for the Cubs in my lifetime. I really wish Statcast had existed for this one because I imagine the hit probability on this is upwards of 99 percent. Johnson just doesn’t even flinch as he slides headlong into the wall saving an extra base hit and trots back into the dugout at the end of the inning. Props to NBC Sports Chicago Twitter for this call:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OTD?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OTD</a> in 2008, Reed Johnson made an incredible catch to rob Felipe Lopez. <a href="https://t.co/fZXmdKaCe3">pic.twitter.com/fZXmdKaCe3</a></p>— Cubs Talk (@NBCSCubs) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCSCubs/status/1121806472843804676?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2019</a>
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<p id="5pey7H">It’s such an improbable play Kasper has to ask if it was caught before declaring it “one of the most amazing catches I’ve ever seen.”</p>
<h3 id="2E26Z0">Jason Heyward’s walkoff grand slam — June 6, 2018</h3>
<p id="XNRI30">After two years of offensive struggles a lot of Cubs fans were less than thrilled to see Jason Heyward come to the plate with the Cubs down to their last out and the bases loaded trailing the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> 5-3. This was aggravated by the fact that the Cubs had led the game three nothing early, before the Phillies tied it in the sixth and then took the lead in the ninth.</p>
<p id="JSvton">But Jason Heyward was in the process of turning his early year struggles around and this swing of the bat was <a href="https://youtu.be/_rud9CAHux0">an absolutely brilliant moment at Wrigley Field [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="l8IPFf"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_rud9CAHux0?rel=0" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media; accelerometer; clipboard-write; gyroscope; picture-in-picture"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="5bAp4j">There are two parts to this call that are brilliant. The first is in managing the anticipation in a tremendously slow at bat. The Phillies’ battery is taking their sweet time but Len and JD manage to keep it interesting with the tension so thick you could cut it with a knife. The second is the call itself, it’s much more mature than Len’s call of Aramis’ walk-off years earlier he just says “There’s a drive to deep right....Cubs....Win” and stands back to let the crowd convey the moment. </p>
<h3 id="R4gayc">Jake Arrieta’s second no-hitter — April 21, 2016</h3>
<p id="3IqIFr">Kasper once wrote that calling a no-hitter never gets old for broadcasters. On April 21, 2016 he got to call his second as a Cubs announcer. It’s worth throwing back to his call of Zambrano’s no-no here because he notes there that it was the first Cubs no-hitter since Milt Pappas threw one in 1972. The legendary Harry Caray never called a Cubs no-hitter, but Kasper called three, including <a href="https://youtu.be/qb-ozAqU1gU">Jake Arrieta’s second no-hitter in 11 starts [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="CsZO2k"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qb-ozAqU1gU?rel=0" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media; accelerometer; clipboard-write; gyroscope; picture-in-picture"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="GggftQ">Of all the changes in this tumultuous Cubs offseason, Len Kasper might be the hardest to replace. I wish him well on the South Side, and hope the Cubs find someone half as talented to be the voice of the next 16 years of Cubs baseball.</p>
<p id="XjlgVw"><em>On the seventh Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: seven incredible Len Kasper calls, six Cubs players with WAR over 1, five strike outs in an Alec Mills no-hitter, a four game delay in the season due to COVID-19, a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and one </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em><strong>World Series</strong></em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/1/3/22211982/12-days-of-cubsmas-seven-incredible-len-kasper-callsSara Sanchez2021-01-02T15:30:00-06:002021-01-02T15:30:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Six players with WAR over 1
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/10IixGL6tx_OOLpc4QQvRzMrcso=/558x85:3300x1913/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68610265/1277027423.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jason Heyward at the plate against the White Sox in September | Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Cubs got some solid performances in 2020</p> <p id="4YXNBw">Normally a WAR (as in most of my pieces, all WAR references are to Fangraph’s calculation) greater than 1.0 wouldn’t be a huge thing to celebrate for some of the names on this list, but this was 2020 so all of these numbers pro-rate to a season WAR of 2.7 times their 2020 total.</p>
<p id="Zf88ee">Obviously this isn’t a perfect exercise. Players have uneven WAR splits across a single season all the time. For example, in 2018 when Javier Báez put himself in the NL MVP conversation his front have was loaded and he tailed off a bit in the back end of the season. I don’t have perfect season splits for his WAR division, but <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/8/8/17640770/javier-baez-mvp-candidate-cubs">I wrote this article on August 8 </a>when Javy had 4.4 WAR with almost a third of the season left. At that moment he was on pace for a 6.2 WAR season, yet he finished with a 5.3 WAR season. Still outstanding, just not exactly on pace.</p>
<p id="y14Rj6">All of that is a really complicated way of saying for the 2020 season having at least 1 WAR over 60 (ish) games played seemed like a pretty good cutoff for determining who the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> tops contributors were in 2020. I’ll cover them in order:</p>
<h3 id="CT1HCt">Yu Darvish: 3.0 WAR</h3>
<p id="62minz">The now former Chicago Cub was the most valuable player on the team by a wide margin. His 3.0 WAR in 2020 would rank fifth in his eight-year MLB career all on its own with no pro-rating. With pro-rating it projects to 8.1 WAR — far and away his best season since coming over from Japan. If you felt like you were watching something special every fifth day when Yu took the mound for the Cubs, it’s because you were, as you can see from this September outing against the Cardinals where Darvish allowed <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/04/0d74749b-3842e397-82844814-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">one hit while striking out 11 over seven innings [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="Rentad"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/04/0d74749b-3842e397-82844814-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<h3 id="b5Wp5m">Kyle Hendricks: 1.9 WAR</h3>
<p id="zLausT">It is worth remembering that the Cubs do still have an ace — his name is Kyle Hendricks and all he does is get guys out every fifth day. While his 2020 wasn’t quite as spectacular as Darvish’s, his 1.9 WAR over 12 starts would have translated to 5.1 WAR over a full season. That would have been Kyle’s best season in MLB, just edging out his 2016 campaign where he finished third in Cy Young voting behind teammate Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. He got the ball on Opening Day and turned in his best performance of the season with <a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-07/24/f51d9a2f-ad4da111-cb06fd34-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">a complete-game shutout where he struck out nine batters [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="RdhHMp"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-07/24/f51d9a2f-ad4da111-cb06fd34-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<h3 id="FDFu4F">Ian Happ: 1.9 WAR</h3>
<p id="6RhBrz">While there were a lot of players who had disappointing campaigns in 2020 (including one of the guys on this list) Ian Happ was not one of them. After spending most of 2019 in AAA to retool a swing that had way too much swing and miss, Happ came back ready to prove something. He cooled off towards the end of the season, but managed to put together a .258/.361/.505 slash line and his 1.9 WAR was higher than any season he’s played to date (complete or partial). Let’s take a look back at his <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/30/87f66cd8-0e2b873d-52e5ff07-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">two-homer game against the Reds at the end of August [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="94kw5I"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/30/87f66cd8-0e2b873d-52e5ff07-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<h3 id="j5zyLI">Jason Heyward: 1.8 WAR</h3>
<p id="QKBpht">It is no secret that Jason Heyward struggled in the early years of his eight year deal with the Cubs, but he’s quietly turned it around the last couple of seasons and in 2020 he took his offensive game back to the level the Cubs thought they were getting when they offered him the original deal. His 1.8 WAR translates to 4.9 over the course of an entire season and would rank as his third best season in the majors. He hit two home runs against the Reds in August but I thought you’d all like to relive the moment he took Josh Hader deep for <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/12/8081211f-9264961b-a58d3908-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">a go-ahead home run in the ninth inning in Milwaukee [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="PWjhcS"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/12/8081211f-9264961b-a58d3908-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<h3 id="pUU3Vo">Willson Contreras: 1.6 WAR</h3>
<p id="Qtf91s">The Cubs’ two-time starting All-Star catcher took a huge step forward in 2020 even if the 2021 projections don’t appreciate it (note to self: write a piece on why the projections cannot find it in themselves to appreciate Willson Contreras). Incredibly, the offense first catcher’s hitting numbers actually took a step back in 2020. He slashed .243/.356/.407 compared to a .265/.351/.463 career baseline yet still managed to piece together a season that would have resulted in a career-best 4.3 WAR campaign over 162 games. How did he manage that? A massive improvement in framing. Framing doesn’t make for sexy highlight reels the same way dingers do, but you can go back to Kyle Hendricks’ Opening Day gem highlights if you’d like to see Willson’s improvements there for yourself. For purposes of honoring Willson via video I thought we could look at one of his best games at the plate in 2020 — <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/04/8cfae064-8f716db5-38b8ef63-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">a September contest where he went 3-4 against the Cardinals and drove in all of the Cubs runs [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="xEMwGa"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/04/8cfae064-8f716db5-38b8ef63-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<h3 id="TpVQg9">Anthony Rizzo: 1.1 WAR</h3>
<p id="RVK1jP">Every year I get the opportunity to do a couple of preview podcasts and our own BCB roundtable and every year I note that we do not appreciate Anthony Rizzo enough. I say that knowing full well that the heart of this Cubs team is beloved by fans. He also just quietly hits over .270 with close to 30 home runs and 100 RBIs like clockwork. Well, he didn’t reach those marks in an abbreviated 2020 season (the 11 HR were on pace but the .222 batting average and 24 RBIs were not) however he still pieced together a season that landed him on this list. His 1.1 WAR in 58 games in 2020 nets out to a 3.0 campaign for the Cubs first baseman. Not quite the 4+ WAR seasons we are used to from Rizzo, but still a solid showing. His best game of the 2020 season came against NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer as he hit two home runs <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/29/a45896b5-80090e46-7c1418b5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">to help the Cubs beat the Reds on August 29 [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="EigpMY"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/29/a45896b5-80090e46-7c1418b5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<p id="Dcrg7m"><em>On the sixth Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: six Cubs players with WAR over 1, five strike outs in an Alec Mills no-hitter, a four game delay in the season due to COVID-19, a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and one </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em>World Series</em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/1/2/22210502/12-days-of-cubsmas-six-players-with-war-over-1Sara Sanchez2021-01-01T15:00:00-06:002021-01-01T15:00:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Five strikeouts in Alec Mills’ no-hitter
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BX2Mti_QS_0jjAG4y6TIRF2MUYM=/147x95:2726x1814/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68607451/1272325898.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Alec Mills and Victor Caratini celebrate after Mills’ no-hitter in September | Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>This improbable game was a 2020 highlight</p> <p id="2e6Ang">While we all still ruminate on the mind-blowing deal that sent Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini to San Diego, it’s worth remember there were some really amazing moments in <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> baseball in 2020. None of those moments was better than the improbable no-hitter that college walk-on Alec Mills <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/ab4fdfcb-174c830a-003d63e5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">threw on September 13 [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="XMGx3D"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/ab4fdfcb-174c830a-003d63e5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<p id="YzOuZJ">So let’s celebrate the fifth Day of Cubsmas by honoring a gem that had only five strikeouts, but no hits. </p>
<p id="1KXxfc">There is a lot to love about baseball, and moments like this are a big reason I tune in every game. It doesn’t matter if the team is good or bad, if the match-up looks good for the Cubs or not. It’s a big reason I never turn off the TV, because even when the Cubs are down by eight runs during one of the coldest games played in the history of Wrigley Field <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/4/14/17238756/cubs-braves-recap-javier-baez-ben-zobrist-mlb-scores">they might just win it in the end</a>. </p>
<p id="pmooYw">Mills’ no-hitter was kind of like that game, with less drama over who would win and lose because the <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> were the victims of exceptionally bad BABIP luck:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Shukjb-g3bc4Cbww-PmA9kmLu5g=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22208581/Brewers_hard_contact_Mills_no_hitter.png">
<cite>Baseball Savant</cite>
<figcaption>Box score from Mills’ no-hitter</figcaption>
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<p id="ANFJsY">They hit the ball hard 11 times, and 11 times the Cubs defense managed to turn those hard hit balls into outs <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/0de2375b-e1f27ed8-68d11d45-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">with plays like this from Ian Happ [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="CfLTAv"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/0de2375b-e1f27ed8-68d11d45-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<p id="tKZD3Z">Alec Mills’ velocity topped out in this game at 91 miles per hour on a first-inning four-seam fastball to Avisail Garcia that resulted in a groundout. But like Kyle Hendricks, that Mills pitch plays a lot faster due to his ability to mix up speeds and location. His slowest pitch in this game was a 66 mile per hour curveball for a called strike on Tyrone Taylor. You can get an idea of the pitch mix and velocity on this chart from Baseball Savant:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RwoB6dODHajeAXllSqMxL7GKv1U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22208596/Alec_Mills_velocity_by_pitch_no_hiter.png">
<cite>Baseball Savant</cite>
<figcaption>Pitch type and velocity for Mills’ no-hitter</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="vkwCDF">That was good enough for five strikeouts for Alec Mills, who got four of them on swinging strike threes. It may have taken a little bit of luck, but pretty much everything in sports is a combination of talent, preparation and luck. Let’s hear from Mills on tossing only <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/e1ed6a05-495d38b0-31f34fc5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">the second no-hitter in the history of Wrigley North [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="cH6Ji2"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-09/13/e1ed6a05-495d38b0-31f34fc5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
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<p id="ikBuCh"><em>On the fifth Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: five strike outs in an Alec Mills no-hitter, a four game delay in the season due to COVID-19, a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and one </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em>World Series</em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/1/1/22209533/12-days-of-cubsmas-five-strikeouts-alec-mills-no-hitterSara Sanchez2020-12-31T16:00:00-06:002020-12-31T16:00:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Four games off in August due to COVID-19
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y9th9xWNJ_9Y5vCjUWZ684L85bc=/62x66:2519x1704/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68604611/1261717126.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kris Bryant runs the bases in a facemask in July | Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>It was a season unlike any other</p> <p id="3YXHvI">The <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> were one of the luckiest teams in baseball with no positive COVID-19 cases among their players during the abbreviated 2020 season, but their schedule was still impacted by the pandemic when their hot start was interrupted by an outbreak on the Cardinals at the start of August.</p>
<p id="awI8Gq">The pandemic was the context for everything after March 2020 and Cubs baseball was no exception. Before the season even started pitching coach Tommy Hottovy detailed his experiences with COVID-19 for <a href="https://www.radio.com/670thescore/cubs-tommy-hottovy-details-harrowing-coronavirus-battle-crushed-me">the Mully and Haugh Show</a> and really set the tone for how the organization would approach playing baseball in the pandemic:</p>
<blockquote><p id="E02zBE">“It is important to understand that, guys, I’m 38 years old,” Hottovy said on the Mully & Haugh Show on Wednesday morning. ”I’ve been poked, prodded, tested for the last 16 years in Major League Baseball. I’ve had no underlying issues, nothing that would red flag me as somebody that would get hit pretty hard with this virus. But I did. My journey through this virus was not like ones you hear of younger people who are asymptomatic or only have it for a few days. I got crushed. I did have to go the hospital for a little bit of time to get checked and do all the breathing treatments.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="CQ7tNi">He continued:</p>
<blockquote><p id="OdsqFS">“The problem with is on day eight through 14, it crushed me,” Hottovy said. ”It got into my lungs. I got the full what they call the COVID pneumonia, a viral pneumonia, shortness of breath, really trouble breathing, constant fevers.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="bqaeTy">The Cubs had Hottovy open their camp explaining his experiences to the team which was critical to some players, like former Cub Yu Darvish, making the decision to play in 2020 <a href="https://theathletic.co.uk/1924891/2020/07/12/yu-darvish-was-ready-to-go-home-if-the-cubs-didnt-get-it-right-at-wrigley/">as Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic reported in July</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="7cURzm">“It was a tough decision,” Darvish said. “But everybody’s still in it. Other teammates have families. Everybody has concerns. But everybody decided to play, so it makes it a little bit easier for me to make a decision to play.”</p>
<p id="Gw1NBg">The Cubs opened training camp by listening to pitching coach Tommy Hottovy, who detailed his own serious COVID-19 case and a 30-day quarantine from his family. Though initially frustrated with the delays in MLB’s testing system, the Cubs so far have not announced a positive test for a player. Manager David Ross, on-field Tier 1 personnel and Theo Epstein’s baseball operations group wear masks out of caution and concern for others — not for political statements.</p>
</blockquote>
<p id="GHJQkS">In fact, the Cubs were one of the teams leading the way to make sure their players weren’t tempted to break team protocols on the road. Marc Carig and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic detailed the lengths the Cubs front office staff went to in order to ensure <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F1976928%2F2020%2F08%2F07%2Froad-trip-teams-like-yankees-cubs-search-for-this-seasons-competitive-advantage%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleedcubbieblue.com%2F2020%2F12%2F31%2F22208469%2F12-days-of-cubsmas-four-games-off-august-covid-19" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">their players had everything they needed without leaving their team hotel</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="zGUVB2">Every team can make that appeal and stress the importance of being cautious to help protect loved ones at home. But the Cubs didn’t want to totally rely on self-policing and the economic incentives in the arbitration system and the free-agent market.</p>
<p id="t3dWsx">With the travel industry decimated, the Cubs shopped for hotels with outdoor space that could be turned into an open-air lounge for the duration of their stays. Instead of sitting in their rooms, players and staffers could eat, hang out and make phone calls in those patio areas. In addition to meal money, the team is supplying three boxed meals a day on the road.</p>
<p id="OpNBLr">Instead of the usual early bus and late bus, the Cubs are scheduling buses to run at 20-minute intervals to avoid crowding during those rides, cut down on extra time at the ballpark and eliminate the need for ride-sharing services or private transportation.</p>
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<p id="hl8bEp">That investment paid off as the Cubs avoided positive cases on their roster all season, but they still found themselves stuck at home for four days after a 10-3 start when the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/8/3/21352434/cardinals-positive-covid-19-tests-mlb-updating-protocols">St. Louis Cardinals suffered a massive team outbreak</a> as they traveled to Milwaukee.</p>
<p id="M3UjHk">The Cardinals managed to complicate that outbreak <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/8/7/21358874/cubs-cardinals-friday-game-postponed-positive-covid-19-test">by traveling twice within the incubation period</a> resulting in more positive cases on both ends of travel. And while they eventually managed to pull together what passed for a season with the help of 11 doubleheaders, it was clearly touch and go there for a while as to whether or not the Cardinals would be able to complete the enough of the 2020 season to qualify for the playoffs.</p>
<p id="PdWFig">With <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html">multiple vaccines currently being distributed in the United States</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12/30/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates">more on the horizon</a>, the 2021 season should be able to avoid many of the worst case scenarios we saw in 2020. However, the timeline for vaccinating relatively healthy, young athletes is still unclear and we might not have seen the last of baseball games postponed due to the pandemic. </p>
<p id="zgPY7P"><em>On the fourth Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: a four game delay in the season due to COVID-19, a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and one </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em>World Series</em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/12/31/22208469/12-days-of-cubsmas-four-games-off-august-covid-19Sara Sanchez2020-12-30T17:00:00-06:002020-12-30T17:00:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: A three-game lead to win the division in 2020
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<figcaption>Willson Contreras and Jeremy Jeffress celebrate a win in September. | Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Cubs rode a hot start to a division championship</p> <p id="56aHFh">It’s easy to forget that the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> have won three division titles in the last five years, particularly as we put a bow on the end of the Cubs run under Theo Epstein and look ahead to the Jed Hoyer era. But they have, and we should be grateful for this time where the Cubs have basically owned their division.</p>
<p id="QBlJW8">The 60-game season created a lot of quirky stats and one of them meant that all it took for the Cubs to win their division by three games was a quick start under new manager David Ross. They rode a 13-3 start to another flag, and while it got a lot closer towards the end of the season (they were just 21-23 over their last 44 games) it was enough, complete with <a href="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/02/92bfeb87-5d574bf4-3196f240-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">socially distanced walk-off celebrations [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
<div id="u5LzYv"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><video controls="" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;">Your browser does not support HTML5 video.<source src="https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2020/2020-08/02/92bfeb87-5d574bf4-3196f240-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4" type="video/mp4"></source></video></div></div>
<p id="2Lt3YV"></p>
<p id="MHhebW">Streakiness has been a characteristic of this team all the way back to the Joe Maddon days. Part of it has to do with the boom and bust offense we’ve been talking about since 2018, part of it has to do with bullpen inconsistency that seems to date back to approximately the same time period. But with parity being the key feature of the NL Central dating back to <em>checks notes, </em>also 2018, it was possible for the Cubs to take advantage of that streakiness to win the division in a short season.</p>
<p id="f5SaLn">David Ross will have a much different task entering his sophomore year as a manager as he loses the team’s ace in Yu Darvish and a high quality backup catcher in Victor Caratini. However, as <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/12/29/22205139/12-days-of-cubsmas-two-first-round-draft-picks-non-tendered">I noted in yesterday’s post</a>, the 2021 NL Central is shaping up to be a remarkably weak division. It’s still unclear how many players the Cubs will deal this offseason. </p>
<div id="CprHA9">
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Projected fWAR of each division<br><br>AL East: 164.1<br>AL Central: 160.3<br>AL West: 155.6<br>NL West: 153.6<br>NL East: 148.5<br><br>NL Central: 126.2</p>— Patrick Brennan (@paintingcorner) <a href="https://twitter.com/paintingcorner/status/1343811134768492544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 29, 2020</a>
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<p id="CwZ3LN"><a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/12/30/22206748/jed-hoyer-yu-darvish-trade-not-financially-motivated">Jed Hoyer’s press conference earlier today</a> didn’t do a lot to clarify the situation. He spoke about this as a small reset, rather than a long rebuild, told us the Darvish trade wasn’t financially motivated, while conceding the team has failed to extend most of its core talent, and seems to believe the Cubs will be competitive in 2021, although that seems like it has more to do with the state of the division than any actual moves that will help this team get better in the short-term this offseason.</p>
<p id="5QtqH1">It reminded me of shaking a Magic 8 Ball and getting this back:</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eC1YAJlxAHFT-PflPCkz2x4AzUo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22205314/magic_8_ball.jpg">
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<p id="P6i7mN">The future may be unclear, but titles are forever. On the third day of Cubsmas I’m celebrating that It is certain the Cubs were NL Central Champions in 2020 by three games.</p>
<p id="gKyhMN"><em>On the third Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: a three game lead to win the division in 2020, two first round draft picks non-tendered and One </em><a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series"><em>World Series</em></a><em> ring in the Theo Epstein Era.</em></p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/12/30/22206915/12-days-of-cubsmas-a-three-game-lead-to-win-the-division-in-2020Sara Sanchez2020-12-29T17:00:00-06:002020-12-29T17:00:00-06:0012 Days of Cubsmas: Two first-round draft picks non-tendered
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<img alt="Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AUoT3xyWP7bAWRq_YLOBPQkO950=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68595433/1166096792.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kyle Schwarber hugs Albert Almora Jr. after a home run in August 2019 | Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>This offseason got off to a painful start</p> <p id="xgOzPG">When I was pitching ideas for this series to Al I was torn on the second day. I had an idea that was positive and one that was negative. I laughed and said it would depend on my mood.</p>
<p id="ahgjme">Well, after yesterday’s absolute disaster of a trade (you can <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/12/29/22204132/yu-darvish-victor-caratini-trade-fire-sale-cubs-padres-ricketts">read my full thoughts here</a>) I almost considered renaming the entire series The 12 Days of Grinchmas. It’s going to be a long winter folks, so let’s face it head on and talk about what led the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> to non-tender two of their best prospects and former first round draft picks: Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora Jr. </p>
<p id="Gbc5lX">Yesterday we celebrated the Theo Epstein regime that finally brought a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> Championship to the North Side of Chicago, but I would be remiss if I didn’t also look at what that regime did not bring the Cubs. We were promised a sustainable championship window, waves of prospects who could be traded for future team needs, Schwarber and Almora were both first round draft picks who were supposed to be flipped for prospects or permanent fixtures on the North Side of Chicago - instead they were quietly let go — over less than $10 million.</p>
<p id="HSnWwq">I think three areas merit evaluation as to why Theo was unable to deliver the waves and waves of talent he promised Cubs fans, and some of them will likely impact future development and should be seriously re-evaluated. </p>
<h3 id="pzWHX2">International free agents</h3>
<p id="lQCGdf">I remember looking at a list of Theo Epstein’s greatest moves once and being stunned at how good he was at making the old International Free Agency market work for him. The changes to that market dramatically impacted a place where the Cubs had an edge over other teams, and I really am not sure they ever got it back.<a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1700922-has-theo-epstein-found-mlbs-new-moneyball-in-international-"> This Bleacher Report piece from 2013 is instructive</a>:</p>
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<p id="eKG5UP">The biggest sent right-handed starter Scott Feldman and backup catcher Steve Clevenger to the <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/baltimore-orioles">Baltimore Orioles</a> <a href="http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130702&content_id=52454896&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc">in exchange for</a> right-handers Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. As a bonus, the Orioles threw in some international slot money.</p>
<p id="2KODpZ">The Cubs <a href="http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130702&content_id=52453618&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc">also dealt</a> recently DFA’d closer Carlos Marmol to the <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/los-angeles-dodgers">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> for right-hander Matt Guerrier. In this trade, it was the Cubs who were parting with some international slot money.</p>
<p id="jbc9U9">But that was OK, because they got more international spending cash <a href="http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130702&content_id=52459696&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou">when they dealt</a> minor league infielder infielder Ronald Torreyes to the <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/houston-astros">Houston Astros</a> for two international slots.</p>
<p id="DzpS5y">The bonus money was what the day was all about. When the dust settled, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/cubs-add-nearly-1-million-to-bonus-pool/"><em>Baseball America</em></a> reported that the Cubs had added close to $1 million to their international bonus pool, increasing it from $4,557,200 to $5,520,300.</p>
<p id="heIUI0">That gave them more money to spend on international prospects than any other team in baseball, all just in time <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130701&content_id=52353064&c_id=mlb">for the opening</a> of the international signing window.</p>
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<p id="jbfTHx">They turned that slot money into Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jiménez — without a doubt the most successful players developed by the Theo Epstein regime this side of Kris Bryant. The <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-mlb-international-signing-rules/">changes to International Signing Rules</a> impacted every team, but for the Cubs it took away one of their biggest advantages. From the looks of the farm system that’s something they haven’t yet recovered from. </p>
<h3 id="L9MwxV">Player development and coaching consistency</h3>
<p id="w0e6gG">The thing about drafts and international free agents and the like is that it is not enough to get good players in your system, you have to be able to develop that talent. This is an area where I would have said the Cubs were excelling up to about three years ago, but I think there was a bit of a sleight of hand here. The Cubs have done a very good job of getting college-aged prospects who were close to MLB levels to the show before seeing them plateau relatively quickly. </p>
<p id="7c1yrV">I mean, it’s not unusual for players to come up, succeed and have a period of adjustment. But players of the caliber of Schwarber and Almora seemed poised to break through. They even had moments where it looked they had, and then the same old hitting problems would emerge. The Cubs almost lost Ian Happ to the same process, but an extended stay at Triple-A in 2019 seems like it may have actually helped him turn a corner over the long-term, we’ll know more when the season is longer than 60 games. </p>
<p id="kaj4Tv">I am not a player development expert. Bleed Cubbie Blue has quite a few front page contributors who know a lot more about these processes than I do and I hope they share their thoughts in the comments. But I do know a fair amount about student development and coaching.</p>
<p id="bB0CSt">I’ve spent more than 15 years coaching students and I know how much time it takes to develop a program, establish routines, build confidence in that program and convince students, teachers and parents that you are on the right track. I think the Cubs undermined their player development by turning over their coaching staff back-to-back-to back years. There may be other issues as well (drafting similar hitting types with a lot of swing and miss in their game, missing on the prospects who were supposed to fill in the contact gaps, and trading away the wrong pieces could all also play a part) but I don’t know how you expect to develop a team when you change the coaching philosophy every year — particularly when it wasn’t broken in the first place.</p>
<h3 id="3wSia2">Shifting financial priorities</h3>
<p id="j4xf4C">I covered the Cubs finances in detail in my piece on the Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini trade that happened on Monday night, so I won’t rehash that. But I will make one observation I didn’t make in that post. I fundamentally believe if this were any other year Schwarber would still be a Cub and Almora would not. However, the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the looming Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations after the 2021 season have created a situation where the Cubs are behaving like a team that doesn’t have any intention of fielding a competitive team in 2022 (likely because they don’t think there will be a season) which has moved up the clock on selling all assets, acquiring as many players in the farm system as possible, and hoping they can start fresh in 2023 or 2024 with a new core.</p>
<p id="iTnT5H">I’ll be writing more about this in the coming days, but I don’t think it’s just the Cubs. Al posted this tweet highlighting the stunning projected WAR differences between the divisions and all five NL Central teams look like they are flat out punting on the 2021 season:</p>
<div id="UaJX1f">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Projected fWAR of each division<br><br>AL East: 164.1<br>AL Central: 160.3<br>AL West: 155.6<br>NL West: 153.6<br>NL East: 148.5<br><br>NL Central: 126.2</p>— Patrick Brennan (@paintingcorner) <a href="https://twitter.com/paintingcorner/status/1343811134768492544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 29, 2020</a>
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<p id="ecB7aT">That looks like an entire division that is so uninterested in winning in the near-term that, well, $6-8 million for Kyle Schwarber is just too much to ask. </p>
<p id="cRLadB"><em>On the Second Day of Cubsmas my true love gave to me: Two first round draft picks non-tendered and One World Series ring in the Theo Epstein Era. </em> </p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2020/12/29/22205139/12-days-of-cubsmas-two-first-round-draft-picks-non-tenderedSara Sanchez