Bleed Cubbie Blue - Cubs vs. Phillies Sunday 7/24 game threadsA Chicago Cubs Fan Community Since February 9, 2005https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47557/cubbieblue.png2022-07-25T08:30:00-05:00http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/rss/stream/230396382022-07-25T08:30:00-05:002022-07-25T08:30:00-05:002022 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 95
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<figcaption>Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A big game for Yan Gomes and a big weekend for Nelson Velázquez</p> <p id="4oow6s">If you are one of the people who has been steadfast in saying that the 2022 <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> won’t lose 100+ games (and in some spots even 95+), then this weekend is probably what you had in mind. No, I’m not suggesting that you sat down with the schedule and said that the Cubs were going to go on the road to a team that has playoff aspirations and sweep them. I’m suggesting that part of what makes baseball special is how (relatively) frequent an occurrence like this weekend is. A bad team, going in and just outplaying a decent team and winning at least a couple of games. </p>
<p id="ygzl9c">In football and basketball, we expect virtually every year to have at least one team that wins more than 75 percent of its games. If I run and find an early edition for the 2022 football season, I I might find that some team is projected to win 14 of its 17 games. That is roughly 80% of its games. In the 2021 NFL season, two teams won 13 games (better than 75 percent) and four more won 12 (right at 70 percent). In the NBA, there was a bit less of that in the most recent season. And yet, the <a href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com">Phoenix Suns</a> was 64 games, a cool .780 winning percentage. I could flip those numbers and note the football teams that lost 12 plus games or the basketball teams that lost more than 60 games, but you get the point.</p>
<p id="G4nLn0">In baseball, the 1906 Cubs set a still-existing record with a .763 winning percentage. Since that season just nine teams have topped 70 percent with one of those being the 2020 <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> in a COVID shortened season. The point is, in baseball and football, we expect to have “outlier” seasons every season. In those sports, we don’t have a real outlier until a football team is winning 15 plus games. In basketball, there is no buzz until you start getting near 70. The <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> have flat dominated this season. They have won exactly 68 percent of their games to date. The Dodgers have won nine of 10 to pass them by half a game. The trade deadline tends to make the extremes more extreme, that team could approach 70 percent. Of course, they could also take their foot off the accelerator at some point. Maybe reduce the workload on some of the players. </p>
<p id="nyRF0r">This is all a long way of saying that these things happen. I’m certain that is no consolation for <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> fans. I have a friend who is a Philly fan and I’ll be talking with him later today, so I’ll hear about it first hand. Surely, coming into the series at six games over .500 and in the thick of the wildcard race (and far from eliminated in their division), they surely had hopes for a sweep in the other direction. Certainly at least a couple of wins. The kind of thing that hopefully gets you off to a good start on your way to making a second half challenge. </p>
<p id="u16vq5">So let’s look at some key contributors to Sunday’s win, one of whom had himself a terrific weekend.</p>
<ol>
<li id="FvBmoL">Yan Gomes. I’ve focused in this spot on guys who I think will be here in 2023 and beyond. I just don’t know about Yan. If the Cubs were to trade Willson Contreras, he could be the starter for the near term future. Or they could hold on to Willson and deal Yan. They wouldn’t get anywhere near the return, but Yan is a guy who has been around. He can hit a little and he’s sound defensively. No one is Willson Contreras, but you could do worse than Gomes. Gomes hit two homers on Sunday. On a day when they only mustered seven hits, the long ball propelled them to victory. </li>
<li id="9xmXhC">Nelson Velázquez. Nelson added a homer of his own, his third of the weekend series. He has to be unhappy to be leaving town because whatever the Phillies were trying to do with him wasn’t working. Besides the homer, he added a single and a walk. He scored the two runs that Gomes didn’t. For the three-game set, he had four hits in six at bats, drew two walks, slugged three homers and drove in seven runs. </li>
<li id="4NCUTg">Drew Smyly. I know the quality start statistic is a little cringe-worthy. Even in modern baseball, most of us aren’t terribly thrilled that a starter allowed three runs over six innings (other than maybe just that a starter finished six). But this start for Drew really was a quality start. He threw six innings and allowed only four hits. He allowed two runs, but one was of the unearned variety. He didn’t walk anybody and struck out four. That’s the pitcher equivalent of knocking it out of the park. </li>
</ol>
<p id="Bz2kIo">Let’s turn our attention now to the Heroes and Goats from Sunday’s sweep finishing victory.</p>
<p id="p48zzV"><strong>Game 95, July 24: </strong>Cubs 4 at Phillies 3 (38-57)</p>
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<figcaption>Fangraphs</figcaption>
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<p id="cJLnKI">Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.</p>
<p id="m6yynY"><strong>THREE HEROES:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li id="72sLkF">
<strong>Superhero: </strong>David Robertson (.204). IP (5 batters), H, BB, K (Sv 14)</li>
<li id="WJGK5d">
<strong>Hero: </strong>Yan Gomes (.176). 2-4, 2HR, 2RBI, 2R</li>
<li id="IdySh7">
<strong>Sidekick: </strong>Drew Smyly (.160). 6IP (22 batters), 4H, 2R (1ER), 4K (W 3-5)</li>
</ul>
<p id="DQfyRs"><strong>THREE GOATS:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li id="eyY6YT">
<strong>Billy Goat: </strong>Seiya Suzuki (.098). 0-4, K</li>
<li id="nFffBp">
<strong>Goat: </strong>Ian Happ (-.066). 1-4</li>
<li id="oEVmr2">
<strong>Kid: </strong>David Bote (-.050). 0-3</li>
</ul>
<p id="ybSodk"><strong>WPA Play of the Game: </strong>David Robertson has picked up a number of Superhero awards on his way to near the top of the Rizzo Award standings. But, he hasn’t had a ton of tension in doing it, so he hasn’t been up here much. On Sunday, a hit and a walk had runners on first and second with two outs in a one run game. That’s when David struck out Garrett Stubbs swinging for the final out of the game. (.173)</p>
<p id="J6EFMH">*Cubs Play of the Game: Stubbs appears in both ends, in the eighth inning he led off with a solo homer against Chris Martin to cut the Cubs lead to one. (.142)</p>
<div id="2wQPkU"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11433445"></div></div>
<p id="EDY3bo"><strong>Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: </strong>(Top 5/Bottom 5)</p>
<p id="eEPeIk">The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.</p>
<ul>
<li id="MsMXvH">Christopher Morel +23</li>
<li id="9NIaxR">David Robertson +22.5</li>
<li id="tgVdSS">Nico Hoerner +18</li>
<li id="VnMiON">Scott Effross +15</li>
<li id="gEglTA">Keegan Thompson +7</li>
<li id="o7WJPn">Rafael Ortega -7.5</li>
<li id="NEkvA5">Andrelton Simmons -8</li>
<li id="hQIS2m">Daniel Norris -9.5</li>
<li id="DHNsYB">Yan Gomes -14</li>
<li id="QvXlEd">Jason Heyward -15.5</li>
</ul>
<p id="Qbl9ba"><strong>Up Next: </strong>The Cubs return home on a four game winning streak, their third of the season. The two previous times they failed in their bid to reach five. They’ll get another chance against the <a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/">Pittsburgh Pirates</a>. The Pirates are ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central standings by 1½ games. The Pirates are a bad road team and a below average team at home. The Cubs are a bad home team and a below average one on the road. So neither team should be a significant favorite at any time in this series. </p>
<p id="uQAdHu">Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.34) has pitched well for the Cubs, though he continues to seek his first win. He’ll face J.T. Brubaker (2-8, 4.02). In modern baseball, a 4.02 ERA doesn’t usually get a record so lopsided. Without doing any digging at all, I’m going to guess that Brubaker has at times been victimized by bad defense leading to unearned runs and at times poor run support. If either or both of those afflictions wants to surface on Monday night at Wrigley Field, I won’t complain. There just isn’t outsized value to finishing with the worst record, so I’m going to enjoy every win when it comes and not fret if it moves the Cubs behind someone else in next year’s draft.</p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/7/25/23277031/2022-cubs-heroes-and-goats-game-95Thomas Smith2022-07-24T14:35:18-05:002022-07-24T14:35:18-05:00Cubs 4, Phillies 3: Sweep!
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<figcaption>Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Yan Gomes and Drew Smyly helped the Cubs to their first series sweep of 2022.</p> <p id="0Yt2aY">Before today, the last time the Cubs swept the Phillies in Philadelphia the winning pitchers were Tim Worrell, Felix Heredia and Steve Rain, and yes, you probably don’t remember at least two of those guys. That was 22 years ago, July 25-27, 2000, and those Cubs weren’t a very good team either, eventually losing 97 games.</p>
<p id="JE8CzY">This year’s Cubs have a chance to avoid that fate, and they played quite well in completing their three-game sweep over the Phillies, though not until a bit of bad play made <a href="https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cubs-vs-phillies/2022/07/24/661556#game_state=final,game_tab=box,game=661556">their 4-3 win Sunday afternoon</a> a bit closer than it should have been.</p>
<p id="or84f8">Many of you likely didn’t see this game on Peacock (and I’m going to post a separate article about the broadcast after this recap), so I’m going to show you quite a few highlights.</p>
<p id="6FNy8p">After a pair of scoreless innings, the Cubs broke through on the board with <a href="https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/dda50d4a-4274-4c35-817f-c6b5cb4c0b89.mp4">this solo homer by Yan Gomes leading off the third [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="iqFesg">That was especially good to see considering that Gomes, entering today’s action, had been hitting .171/.188/.207 (14-for-82) in 24 games since June 14.</p>
<p id="GfC5fW">One out after the homer, Nelson Velázquez walked and <a href="https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/afadac90-5f1d-4d4a-b94e-b224a7710482.mp4">Christopher Morel doubled him in [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="YilaXG">The Cubs extended the lead in the fourth, again courtesy of Gomes, <a href="https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/3c14202f-a427-4e2b-8837-0d17ba5e172a.mp4">who homered with one out [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="EipdyL"></p>
<p id="SSudQK">This was Gomes’ first multi-homer game as a Cub and sixth of his career. After David Bote struck out, <a href="https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/e206c5c5-f8fb-4e40-827e-876b8a340aa1.mp4">Velázquez sent a ball into the seats [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="uietk7">So. It’s 4-0 heading to the fifth and Drew Smyly is dealing. He retired the first 14 Phillies before Bryson Stott doubled with two out in the fifth. Stott scored on a single by Alec Bohm to make it 4-1.</p>
<p id="7JVc7A">Smyly should have made it out of the sixth inning with no further runs off him but during that frame, the Cubs forgot how to play defense. A popup by Garrett Stubbs fell untouched by David Bote, who lost it in the sun. One out later, Gomes dropped a foul popup by Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber eventually grounded out, which advanced Stubbs to third, where he scored on a single to left by Rhys Hoskins — no guarantee Stubbs scores if not for the base advance.</p>
<p id="h58qfQ">So Smyly winds up with a strong outing, six innings, four hits, two runs (one earned), no walks, four strikeouts. The last couple of outings from Smyly actually make it more likely he’ll be traded, I’d think. </p>
<p id="95ppBI">But that inning messed up the sequencing; it probably should have been a 1-2-3 inning for Smyly, instead five Phillies batted in the inning.</p>
<p id="eo6FIf">Meanwhile, the Cubs offense shut down, with only three baserunners after the fourth inning and only two of them got past first base. So it would be up to the Cubs bullpen to shut things down.</p>
<p id="RnNvNp">Scott Effross gave up a pair of hits in the seventh, but in between, he got Stott to hit into a double play, so no runs scored.</p>
<p id="dP8Cdj">Chris Martin was not so fortunate. On Martin’s third pitch of the eighth, <a href="https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/5dd61f52-d2d0-47f8-902d-3f778c70fa8d.mp4">Stubbs homered deep into right field [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="1ACuRw">So it would be up to David Robertson to preserve a one-run lead. You’d better believe scouts were sitting in the 100-degree heat at CBP taking notes. With one out, Robertson walked Stott and allowed a single to Bohm. But then Didi Gregorius lined to left and <a href="https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2022/2022-07/24/1b636502-fb7b9247-a29c982a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4">Robertson finished it off by striking out Stubbs [VIDEO]</a>.</p>
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<p id="SKbbk4"></p>
<p id="I3Kb4X">This team played solid baseball in every way this weekend (except for those defensive lapses in the sixth inning of this one). This is the sort of baseball I thought this team could play, and the Phillies are a decent enough team, still in the wild card hunt. </p>
<p id="xpvN5i">It was also the 60th time in 95 games that the Cubs scored first. They are 30-30 in those games. That has to improve; when you take an early lead, you should keep it. The win also improved the Cubs’ record in one-run games to 12-18. Which is bad, but they have won four of their last seven one-run decisions.</p>
<p id="F89GRC">As noted, it was the first sweep by the Cubs in Philadelphia since before CBP was built — that one, in 2000, was on the artificial turf of Veterans Stadium. It was the Cubs’ sweep of the Phillies at all since May 27-29, 2016 at Wrigley Field, their first sweep of any kind since they swept the Pirates in a four-game set at Wrigley September 2-5, 2021 and their first sweep on the road since May 25-27, 2021, also against the Pirates.</p>
<p id="8TeQtI">Who, coincidentally, they will play in a two-game set at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening. Keegan Thompson will get the start for the Cubs and JT Brubaker will go for the Pirates. Game time Monday is 7:05 p.m. CT and TV coverage returns to Marquee Sports Network.</p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/7/24/23276525/cubs-phillies-recap-yan-gomes-drew-smyly-mlb-scoresAl Yellon2022-07-24T12:35:00-05:002022-07-24T12:35:00-05:00Overflow thread: Cubs vs. Phillies, Sunday 7/24, 11:05 a.m. CT
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<figcaption>Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p id="W81vao">——</p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/7/24/23275596/overflow-thread-cubs-vs-phillies-sunday-7-24-11-05-a-m-ctAl Yellon2022-07-24T11:00:00-05:002022-07-24T11:00:00-05:00First pitch thread: Cubs vs. Phillies, Sunday 7/24, 11:05 a.m. CT
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<figcaption>David Banks-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p id="W81vao">Go get ‘em, Drew.</p>
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/7/24/23275594/first-pitch-thread-cubs-vs-phillies-sunday-7-24-11-05-a-m-ctAl Yellon2022-07-24T10:00:00-05:002022-07-24T10:00:00-05:00Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies preview, Sunday 7/24, 11:05 a.m. CT
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<figcaption>Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Cubs go for a series sweep!</p> <p id="nUM7bw">Sunday notes...</p>
<ul>
<li id="wixcGp">
<strong>THE LAST TIME IT HAPPENED:</strong> The Cubs last swept a series September 2-5, 2021 against the Pirates at Wrigley Field. The last time the Cubs swept a series on the road was also against the Pirates, May 25-27, 2021. The last time the Cubs swept the Phillies was May 27-29, 2016 at Wrigley Field. The last time the Cubs swept the Phillies in Philadelphia was July 25-27, 2000 — at Veterans Stadium. The Cubs have never swept the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.</li>
<li id="HFWVLF">
<strong>THE WEATHER WILL BE A FACTOR:</strong> Here’s <a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.16657965257764&lat=39.90578384572353">the Philadelphia weather forecast</a> for today: “Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 104. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.”</li>
<li id="TwGzFG">
<strong>SCORING RUNS IN BUCKETS:</strong> The Cubs have scored 21 runs over the first two games of this series. That equals the number of runs they had scored in their previous eight games.</li>
<li id="SCCEFP">
<strong>AIMING FOR EIGHTY:</strong> Scott Effross has appeared in 44 of the Cubs’ 94 games so far. That’s a pace for 76 games pitched. If he gets to 80, he will become the 11th pitcher in Cubs history to appear in that many games, last done by Steve Cishek in 2018. The franchise record is 84, set by Ted Abernathy in 1965 and tied by Dick Tidrow in 1980 and Bob Howry in 2006.</li>
</ul>
<p id="evYeJb">Here are today’s particulars.</p>
<p id="OmIgrW"><a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> lineup:</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is today’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> starting lineup for the series finale in Philly! <a href="https://t.co/loAmAUPqAl">pic.twitter.com/loAmAUPqAl</a></p>— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1551202473637027841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 24, 2022</a>
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<p id="nU1Gao"><a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com">Phillies</a> lineup:</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sunday baseball. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RingTheBell?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RingTheBell</a><br><br> : <a href="https://twitter.com/peacockTV?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@peacockTV</a> <br> : <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsRadioWIP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SportsRadioWIP</a><br> : <a href="https://t.co/c1CSAoDBtw">https://t.co/c1CSAoDBtw</a> <a href="https://t.co/BlI9f8HZxD">pic.twitter.com/BlI9f8HZxD</a></p>— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) <a href="https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1551197344393216001?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 24, 2022</a>
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<h2 id="lePhfq">Drew Smyly, LHP vs. Bailey Falter, LHP</h2>
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<cite>USA TODAY NETWORK</cite>
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<cite>USA TODAY NETWORK</cite>
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<p id="3xjDX3">Drew Smyly’s last start, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN202207162.shtml">July 16 against the Mets</a>, was pretty good, though he didn’t finish the fifth inning. That might be all right for teams looking to trade for him as a multi-inning reliever.</p>
<p id="VZIQJw">As a Brave last year, he made three starts against the Phillies and posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 13⅓ innings. That doesn’t sound great, but it was more or less in line with his overall season numbers (4.48 ERA, 1.374 WHIP). Current Phillies are hitting .284 (21-for-74) against Smyly with four home runs.</p>
<p id="dcgh56">Bailey Falter. Wasn’t he on that 1970s TV show <em>WKRP in Cincinnati</em>? </p>
<p id="pE3C8n">Oh, <em>never mind</em>. That was <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bailey_Quarters">Bailey Quarters</a>. Carry on.</p>
<p id="TBgKwW">Anyway... Falter has made 31 MLB appearances (six starts) since his debut last year. The results have been mediocre (5.25 ERA, 1.314 WHIP, 11 home runs in 61⅔ innings).</p>
<p id="Sjx3ST">He last pitched <a href="https://www.milb.com/gameday/666223">10 days ago</a> in Triple-A. He made three relief appearances against the Cubs last year and in one of them, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN202107060.shtml">July 6, 2021 at Wrigley Field</a> he got pounded for five runs in fewer than two innings.</p>
<p id="Yzztpz">Oh, <em>never mind</em> again because of the 17 Cubs who played in that game, just two (Willson Contreras and Ian Happ) are still on the team.</p>
<p id="bwHmnr">So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯</p>
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<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitchmix#592767_2022" target="_blank">Statcast</a></cite>
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<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitchmix#663559_2022" target="_blank">Statcast</a></cite>
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<p id="YZu7OH">Today’s game is on Peacock (<a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/7/24/23220520/cubs-phillies-game-peacock-how-to-watch">how to watch</a>). Announcers: Jason Benetti, John Kruk and Ryan Sweeney.</p>
<p id="6w2xna"><a href="https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/2022/07/24">Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.</a></p>
<p id="Xe5URc"><a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2022_07_24_chnmlb_phimlb_1">MLB.com Gameday</a></p>
<p id="iDRiK8"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2022/PHI202207240.shtml">Baseball-reference.com game preview</a></p>
<p id="7oSHCm">Please visit our SB Nation Phillies site <a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/">The Good Phight</a>. If you do go there to interact with Phillies fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.</p>
<p id="mRtOMf">The 2022 Game Thread procedure will be like last year’s, similar to what we’ve used for Spring Training.</p>
<p id="uNrOo7">You’ll find the game preview posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).</p>
<p id="Jy7Er2">At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game, including the First Pitch Thread and the overflow thread, as well as the recap when it’s published. The recap will also live on the front page as a separate post.</p>
<p id="F5ehVY">You will also be able to find the preview, First Pitch Thread and the overflow thread in the box marked “Chicago Cubs Game Threads” at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in <a href="http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/chicago-cubs-game-threads">this section link</a>). The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.</p>
<p id="pjBR1E">The First Pitch thread will post at five minutes before game time, then an overflow thread at 90 minutes after the scheduled game time.</p>
<p id="cWIBoH">Discuss amongst yourselves.</p>
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https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/7/24/23269331/chicago-cubs-philadelphia-phillies-preview-sundayAl Yellon